Bitcoin's weak rebound cannot hide the correction trend; HYPE top signal warns of short-term risks | Special analysis

This week's core: Bitcoin daily chart structure weakens, can a short-term rebound effectively break through the upper boundary of the descending channel? Is the HYPE seven-stage rally already at its end? The following systematically reviews the current market pattern from multiple timeframes and formulates medium- and short-term trading strategies for this week, for reference.

Summary of core trading viewpoints this week:

• Analysis of BTC multi-timeframe trend structure. (See detailed explanation in Part 1)

• Market forecast for BTC this week and medium- to short-term trading strategies. (See detailed explanation in Part 2)

• Analysis of HYPE hourly chart structure. (See detailed explanation in Part 3)

• Market forecast for HYPE this week and short-term trading strategies. (See detailed explanation in Part 4)

Market validation of last week's trading strategy and core viewpoints:

• BTC short-term trading results: Bitcoin completed a short position operation last week (1x leverage), successfully achieving approximately 5.07% profit. (See Table 1)

• Market validation of BTC trend forecast: Last week's article pointed out that Bitcoin continued its oscillating downward adjustment pattern, with a short-term strategy focused on “selling on rallies.” The current market trend confirms our previous forecast.

1. Bitcoin multi-timeframe trend structure analysis

1. BTC daily chart structure analysis

Bitcoin _ daily K-line chart:

Figure 1

• Ascending channel (yellow): As shown in (Figure 1), since the low point on February 6, 2026, Bitcoin has been oscillating upward within an ascending channel. (Lower boundary: connecting the lows on Feb 6 and Mar 29; upper boundary: drawing a line parallel through the high on Mar 17 and the lower boundary)

• Short-term descending channel (blue): After reaching a high of $82,850 on May 6, Bitcoin entered a short-term descending channel. (Upper boundary: connecting the rebound highs on May 14 and May 26; lower boundary: connecting the correction lows on May 7 and May 23)

• Based on the ascending channel (yellow), the price has broken below the midline of the channel and is seeking stronger support at the lower boundary.

• Based on the short-term descending channel (blue), the price fell to the channel's lower boundary (around $72,500) for temporary support and is now in a weak rebound cycle toward the channel's upper boundary.

Overall judgment: From a technical structure perspective, Bitcoin is under the dual influence of long- and short-term channels. The current rebound is mainly a correction of oversold conditions in the short term, targeting the upper boundary of the short-term descending channel (blue). However, since the price has broken below the midline of the ascending channel (yellow), the overall technical structure is weakening. It is expected that after the rebound ends, the price will likely revert to the previous downtrend and further test the support strength of the lower boundary of the ascending channel.

2. Bitcoin hourly chart structure in-depth analysis: (using 4-hour cycle)

Bitcoin _4-hour K-line chart

Figure 2

①, As shown in (Figure 2), from the high point of $82,850 on May 6 until now, the 4-hour chart can be subdivided into: “27-28 segments” to “36-37 segments,” totaling 10 adjustment segments. It also includes two correction centers:

• Center D: formed by overlapping segments 28-29, 29-30, 30-31.

• Center E: formed by overlapping segments 32-33, 33-34, 34-35.

②, From the 4-hour trend structure, the current rebound is in segments 36-37. If the rebound reaches $75,000–76,000 and faces resistance, failing to form an effective breakout, the market will most likely continue the previous oscillating downward pattern, with support testing at $69,500–70,500.

2. Market forecast and trading strategies for BTC this week

1. BTC market forecast for this week:

Core viewpoint: Focus on the test results of the resistance zone at $75,000–76,000 and the support zone at $69,500–70,500, from both bullish and bearish sides.

2. Key resistance levels:

• First resistance zone: $75,000–76,000 (near the lower boundary of Center E)

• Second resistance zone: $78,500–79,500 (near the upper and lower boundaries of two centers)

3. Key support levels:

• First support zone: $69,500–70,500 (previous important support)

• Second support zone: around $65,000 (previous important support)

4. Trading strategies for this week (excluding unexpected news impacts):

①, Medium-term strategy:

Bitcoin _ daily K-line chart: (Position monitoring model)

Figure 3

Position monitoring model: As shown in (Figure 3), the price has fallen below the “bull-bear channel,” entering a technically weak zone. This week, attention should be paid to its retest of the bull-bear channel (around $75,000–76,000). If the price rebounds to this level and shows signs of stagnation or resistance, a medium-term short position will be initiated. To control risk, initial position size should be kept below 30% of total funds; after the price breaks below the lower boundary of the ascending channel (yellow), increase the medium-term position to about 60%.

②, Short-term strategy: Use 30% of the position, set stop-loss points, and look for “spread” trading opportunities based on support and resistance levels (using 30-minute/60-minute cycles).

③, To dynamically respond to market evolution, two specific plans, A/B, are prepared in advance.

• Plan A: Rebound faces resistance, short on rallies.

• Entry: When the price rebounds to $75,000–76,000 and encounters resistance, combined with top signals from the quantitative model, establish a short position below 30%.

• Risk control: Set initial stop-loss above $77,000.

• Exit: When the price approaches key support levels and combined with model signals, gradually close positions to realize profits.

• Plan B: Effective breakdown of support, follow the trend to short.

• Entry: When the price effectively breaks below $69,500–70,500 support zone, combined with top signals from the model, establish a short position below 30%.

• Risk control: Set initial stop-loss above $72,000.

• Exit: When the price drops to key support levels and combined with model signals, gradually close positions to realize profits.

3. HYPE hourly chart structure analysis:

HYPE_4-hour K-line chart

Figure 4

1. As shown in (Figure 4), within the 4-hour cycle, since the low point of $38.14 on May 14, HYPE has clearly constructed a seven-stage structure including an “upward center” (from 40-41 to 46-47). Among these, segments 43-44, 44-45, 45-46 overlap to form an “upward center.”

2. Previously, the weekly review warned: since the “endpoint 45” shows momentum divergence and the “spread trading model” signals a top warning, both resonated, making a short-term high likely. The market trend confirmed this: the price adjusted from “endpoint 45” ($64.75) to “endpoint 46” ($56.30), with a maximum decline of 13.05%.

3. Currently, comparing the “center leaving segment” (46-47) with the “entering segment” (42-43), the upward momentum appears weak, indicating a high probability of “momentum divergence.”

4. According to our self-developed “spread trading model,” “endpoint 47” has triggered a strong top warning signal (red + white dots).

5. Overall, if a top signal forms at “endpoint 47” and the “momentum divergence” persists, the likelihood that this marks the end of the current upward phase since “endpoint 40” will significantly increase. Future movements should focus on the price’s retest of the critical zone at $62.5–64.57.

4. HYPE market forecast for this week and short-term trading strategies

1. HYPE market forecast for this week:

Core viewpoints:

• Observe whether the “momentum divergence” is confirmed when “endpoint 47” signals a clear top.

• If confirmed, and the price effectively breaks below support zones at $62.5–64.57, then “endpoint 47” can be regarded as the end point of the upward trend from the May 14 low.

2. HYPE short-term trading strategies (support-based long):

This week, HYPE’s short-term trading should follow the “buy on dips, avoid chasing rallies” principle. The key is to observe the price’s retest of support zones at $62.5–64.75:

Strategy 1: Support stabilization and attempt to go long

If the price retraces to this zone and shows signs of stabilization, combined with signals from the two models indicating bottoming, consider a light long position, with position size controlled below 30%, and strict stop-loss.

Strategy 2: Support fails, leading to larger correction

If the price effectively breaks below this zone, the correction will escalate to a larger timeframe (e.g., daily level), extending the duration and space of the correction, with initial targets at $54–56.3.

5. Bitcoin trading review

1. Short-term trading recap: (see Table 1)

We strictly followed the plan, based on signals from our self-developed “spread trading model” and “momentum quantification model,” completed one short-term operation last week, with a profit of 5.07%.

①, Summary of Bitcoin short-term trades: (leverage *1)

Table 1

②, Short-term trade review: (see Figure 5)

• Entry strategy:

a. When the price rebounds near $78,000 and shows resistance signals, with a bearish “top divergence” candlestick pattern;

b. “Spread trading model” triggers a top warning (white dot);

c. “Momentum quantification model” signals momentum divergence.

Therefore, we established a 30% short position at $77,449.

• Exit strategy:

a. When the price drops near $73,000 and shows a bottoming signal, with a “bottom divergence” candlestick pattern;

b. “Spread trading model” triggers a strong bottom warning (red + white dots), resonating with the “momentum quantification model.”

Thus, we fully closed the position at around $73,519.

• Summary: this trade achieved a profit of approximately 5.07%.

BTC_60-minute K-line chart: (Momentum quantification + spread trading models)

Figure 5 (short-term trading illustration)

6. Special tips:​​

1. When opening a position: immediately set an initial stop-loss.

2. When profit reaches 1%: move the stop-loss to the entry price (break-even point) to protect capital.

3. When profit reaches 2%: move the stop-loss to 1% profit level.

4. Continuous tracking: for every additional 1% profit, move the stop-loss up by 1%, dynamically protecting and locking in gains.

The financial markets are ever-changing; all analysis and trading strategies need to be dynamically adjusted. All viewpoints, models, and strategies discussed are based on personal technical analysis, for personal trading logs only, and do not constitute investment advice or operational guidance. Market risks are inherent; please trade cautiously and do not base decisions solely on this content.**