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#六月行情预测 Bitcoin Market Brief Weekly Report: Weak Rebound, 80% Probability of a Main Downtrend in June!
Key signals from the market and charts:
(1) The longest continuous outflow in ETF history (over $2.97 billion in 10 days), institutions are retreating.
(2) $73,000-$74,000 area has $300 million in leveraged longs; if the price falls below this zone, a chain liquidation will be triggered.
(3) $74,200-$74,250 has been tested three times as a short-term iron top; rebound gains are limited, and subsequent rebounds should be shorted.
(4) Fear index at 35, bullish/bearish ratio of 2.23 (2026 high), extreme bullish sentiment historically signals a correction.
(5) US-Iran agreement: Trump tightens terms, negotiations ongoing. Official signing has limited impact.
(6) 75% chance of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in June; FOMC meeting and BOJ meeting coincide on June 16.
(7) The World Cup starts in June; each World Cup opening has a very high probability of Bitcoin dropping sharply!
💎Action Principles and Warm Reminders:
(1) The fifth wave decline is unfolding; be cautious about going long in a bearish trend.
(2) $74,500-$75,500 is an area to add to short positions, not a reason to chase longs.
(3) $72,000-$72,500 is a key support level on the 4-hour chart. This is the lower boundary of the recent five-wave decline and a tested low point. If it breaks effectively, it indicates the breakdown of the box structure, and the decline will accelerate.
Key signals from the market and charts:
(1) The longest continuous outflow in ETF history (over $2.97 billion in 10 days), institutions are retreating.
(2) $73,000-$74,000 area has $300 million leverage longs; if prices break below this zone, a chain liquidation will be triggered.
(3) $74,200-$74,250 has been tested three times as a short-term iron top; rebound potential is limited, continue shorting on further rebounds.
(4) Fear index at 35, bullish/bearish ratio 2.23 (2026 high), extreme bullish sentiment historically signals a correction.
(5) US-Iran agreement Trump tightening clauses, still in negotiation. Official signing has limited impact.
(6) Bank of Japan June rate hike probability at 75%, coinciding with June 16 FOMC + Bank of Japan meeting.
(7) The World Cup starts in June; each World Cup kickoff has a very high probability of Bitcoin dropping sharply!
💎Action principles and warm reminders:
(1) The fifth wave decline is unfolding; be cautious about going long in a bearish trend.
(2) $74,500-$75,500 is an area to add to short positions, not a reason to chase longs.
(3) $72,000-$72,500 is a key support level on the 4-hour chart. This is the lower boundary of the box after the five-wave decline and a recent test low. If broken effectively, it indicates the breakdown of the box structure, and the decline will accelerate.