#加密市场回升 A 114 days of calm! CryptoQuant analyst warns: Bitcoin will experience 10%-20% sharp volatility this week

CryptoQuant's on-chain analyst Maartunn has just issued a warning that cannot be ignored: Bitcoin has been locked in an unusually narrow range for 114 consecutive days, with volatility indicators dropping below 0.90, hitting multi-month lows. Based on historical experience, this extreme compression of the "spring" could release at any time. Maartunn predicts that Bitcoin will see dramatic swings of 10% to 20% next. "If Bitcoin experiences 10% to 20% volatility in the next one or two weeks, don’t be surprised." That’s exactly what Maartunn said.

01 Calm for 114 days, where is the problem?
The last time Bitcoin was in such a "deadlock" was back in February 2026. Since then, the price has been confined within a narrow channel of $72,000 to $78,000 for a full 113 days. In a market known for wild surges and drops, this rare quietness has made industry insiders increasingly uneasy. Even more concerning is that market liquidity is quietly drying up. Trading volumes on major spot exchanges have fallen to local lows, and long-term investors (HODLers) have been transferring Bitcoin from exchanges to their own non-custodial wallets. This means fewer Bitcoin are available for sale on exchanges.
Maartunn emphasizes that in such a liquidity-starved environment, even without billions of dollars flowing in, the market can still trigger sharp volatility. Any external catalyst—such as the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book or a major whale announcing a buy-in—could serve as a trigger for a breakout.

02 Two clear price scenarios are awaiting direction! Maartunn presents two distinct scenarios, focusing on these two key levels:
🟢 Bullish scenario: Break above $78,200 If Bitcoin can hold above $78,200, stop-loss orders from bears will be triggered, possibly pushing the price rapidly to the $81,500 to $88,000 range.
🔴 Bearish scenario: Drop below $72,000 If sellers break through the support near $72,000, forced liquidations of leveraged longs could trigger a chain reaction, with prices accelerating downward to $65,000 or even $58,800. The initial direction of this move will likely set the tone for the entire summer of 2026.

03 Current market coordinates: at a crossroads near $73,500
As of today (June 1), Bitcoin’s trading price is around $73,500–$73,800. Over the past week, Bitcoin has fallen about 4.1%, with multiple daily moving averages showing a bearish alignment, indicating a short-term weak trend.
Key observation points:
Resistance above: $74,800 If it cannot hold, short-term downside risk remains.
Support below: $73,586–$72,000 If this line is broken, $70,000 or even lower could be tested.
CME gap: An unfilled futures gap exists between $73,400 and $73,500, attracting market attention over the weekend, likely to be filled downward in the short term.
Liquidation clusters: Large leveraged short positions are concentrated in the $78,000–$79,000 range. A breakout above could trigger a massive short squeeze.

04 Bearish signals and potential bullish signs
Maartunn added in his May 29 analysis that Bitcoin has already fallen 11% over the past 14 days, but this is just the surface symptom. The deeper issue is that market participants are simultaneously retreating. Several worrying signals:
Derivatives sell pressure surging: Net active selling in the futures market has reached its highest level since March, with net active volume dropping to -$948 million, averaging over $40 million in sell orders per hour.
Institutional funds continuing to flow out: The US spot Bitcoin ETF has recorded net outflows for 10 consecutive trading days, totaling over $2.97B, with a net outflow of $230M in May alone.
Whale behavior shifting: The whale ratio on exchanges has risen to a ten-month high, with large holders accelerating transfers to exchanges, indicating potential selling intent.
But at the same time, some positive signals are flashing:
Stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) is rising—meaning liquidity in stablecoins relative to Bitcoin’s market cap is increasing, often a sign of accumulated buying power.
Net active volume approaching historic exhaustion—aggressive selling may be nearing its limit, and such extreme seller markets historically correspond to bottom phases.
Bull-to-bear ratio remains high—top traders’ ratio around 1.72, indicating smart money is not heavily bearish.
Deribit options market: 59.25% of options are calls, 40.75% puts, overall leaning bullish.

05 Key catalysts this week: US macroeconomic data releases
This week’s movement may be driven not only by technical factors. The US will release a series of macroeconomic data that are crucial for the global risk asset outlook:
June 3 (Wednesday): Federal Reserve releases Beige Book on economic conditions
June 4 (Thursday): US initial jobless claims
June 5 (Friday): Non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings
The market generally expects the Fed to maintain a tightening stance, with caution ahead of the June FOMC meeting. Any data exceeding expectations—especially on employment—could reinforce expectations of high interest rates, which is not good news for risk assets including Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has been hovering in this narrow range for 114 days, with increasing pressure. The focus now should be on the upper boundary at $78,200 and the lower boundary at $72,000. If it remains stuck in place, the "spring" will only be compressed further. Maartunn’s warning of 10%-20% volatility is not alarmist—it’s based on the core logic of volatility compression and liquidity exhaustion. The initial move’s direction will set the overall market tone for the summer.

What do you think? Will Bitcoin break above $78,000 first, or test $70,000 first? Feel free to share your views in the comments.