A heads-up ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls—

there’s a very good chance it will become an excuse for new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Walsh to push for hawkish policy.
Many people don’t know that Walsh is a true, hardline 2% inflation fundamentalist, and he won’t easily heed Trump’s calls for rate cuts and easing.
At present, non-farm payrolls are expected to rise by 96,000 (previous 115,000), while the unemployment rate is expected to stay steady at 4.3%.
The expectation is one thing, but in reality the number of new jobs may fall below 80,000; and due to supply-chain disruptions and labor shortages, the month-over-month growth rate of hourly wages will likely be capped at above 0.4%, plus April PCE surged to 3.9%, the highest level in three years.
Put the two together, and the classic stagflation model means Walsh will absolutely not bow to weak employment at the June 17 rate-setting meeting—rate cuts are basically out of the question.