Based on Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationship, Order Flow, and Price Action Analysis of BTC Short-term Trends

$BTC ‌1. Dow Theory
Main trend (1-hour level): Since the high point of 82,448 on May 10, the medium-term downtrend is still ongoing, but the downward momentum has significantly weakened. The high point of 78,002 on May 26 has become an important turning point in this round of decline, followed by a five-wave plunge to 72,450. A sharp V-shaped reversal occurred on May 29 (72,384 → 74,222), followed by a volume-constrained rebound to 74,022 on May 30. The trend on May 31 is extremely critical—early morning surged to 74,154 (new high since May 29), but in the afternoon fell back to 73,288, and closed at 73,508. The medium-term downtrend remains, but the rally and pullback on May 31 indicate that the resistance zone of 74,000–74,500 is very heavy, and the market is building a complex bottom.
Short-term trend (15-minute level): The May 31 movement shows a complex structure of "surge high and fall back—oscillating downward—rebound at the close." Early morning at 01:15, the intraday high of 74,154 was made, then gradually declined, dropping to 73,288 at 16:00, and rebounded from 73,400 to 73,508 at the close. The short-term high retreated from 74,154 to 73,508, and the short-term low slightly lifted from 73,288, indicating a shift from upward to oscillating slightly bearish.
Dow conclusion: The main trend is downward, but the downward momentum has significantly weakened. The short-term trend has turned to oscillating slightly bearish. The surge and pullback on May 31 show that the resistance zone of 74,000–74,500 is very heavy, and the C wave rebound may have ended. The key short-term resistance is 74,200; if broken effectively, it confirms a new upward wave; if the rebound is blocked at 74,000 and falls below 73,288, the downtrend resumes, targeting 72,384 → 72,000.
2. Chan Theory
Pattern structure: On the 15-minute chart, multiple valid top and bottom patterns are marked.
Top patterns: Appear at 78,002 (5/26), 76,022 (5/27), 74,462 (5/28), 74,222 (5/29), 74,022 (5/30), 74,154 (5/31). The top pattern prices descend stepwise from 78,002 → 76,022 → 74,462 → 74,222 → 74,022, but the top pattern on May 31 at 74,154 is slightly higher than 74,022, indicating the bulls attempted but failed to break through.
Bottom patterns: Appear at 75,555 (5/26), 74,114 (5/27), 72,450 (5/28), 72,384 (5/29), 73,118 (5/30), 73,288 (5/31). The bottom pattern prices descend from 75,555 → 74,114 → 72,450 → 72,384, then rise twice consecutively (72,384 → 73,118 → 73,288), showing support levels are gradually rising.
Lines and segments: From the top pattern at 78,002 to the bottom at 75,555, the downward stroke is -2,447. Upward strokes: +467 (75,555 → 76,022), downward: -1,908 (76,022 → 74,114), upward: +348 (74,114 → 74,462), downward: -2,012 (74,462 → 72,450), upward: +1,772 (72,450 → 74,222), downward: -1,838 (74,222 → 72,384), upward: +1,638 (72,384 → 74,022). On May 31, from 74,022 surging to 74,154, a very weak upward stroke of +132 was formed, then fell back to 73,288, forming a downward stroke of -866. The current rebound from 73,288 to 73,508 is +220, not yet forming an effective upward stroke.
Central zone: The previous central zones at 75,500–76,500 and 74,000–75,000 have been completely broken down. Currently, a new wide-range oscillation central zone has formed between 72,800–74,200, with two lows at 73,118 and 73,288 showing higher lows, and two highs at 74,154 and 74,022 showing higher highs, indicating the central area is converging.
Chan conclusion: The downward strokes (-2,447, -1,908, -2,012, -1,838, -866) remain strong, but the upward strokes (+467, +348, then sharply weakening to +132) show that the bullish force, after encountering strong resistance above 74,000, quickly exhausted. The bottom pattern shows consecutive higher lows (72,384 → 73,118 → 73,288), but the top pattern also shows consecutive higher highs (74,022 → 74,154), forming a converging triangle. Short-term focus is on whether 73,288 can form an effective bottom pattern; if broken, the double bottom structure fails; if stabilized, upward continuation is possible.
3. Elliott Wave Theory
Based on the 1-hour wave structure, the movement since the high of 78,002 on May 26 is divided into waves:
Wave 1 (Collapse): 78,002 → 75,555 (5/26), -2,447. Panic selling.
Wave 2 (Weak rebound): 75,555 → 76,022 (5/27), +467. Rebound about 19.1% of Wave 1.
Wave 3 (Main decline): 76,022 → 74,114 (5/27), -1,908. About 0.78 of Wave 1.
Wave 4 (Minor rebound): 74,114 → 74,462 (early morning 5/28), +348. About 18.3% of Wave 3.
Wave 5 (Extended decline): 74,462 → 72,450 (5/28), -2,012. About 0.82 of Wave 1, completing the five-wave decline.
Wave A (V-shaped rebound): 72,450 → 74,222 (5/29), +1,772.
Wave B (Deep correction): 74,222 → 72,384 (5/29), -1,838. Nearly fully retracing Wave A.
Wave C (Rebound to previous high): 72,384 → 74,154 (5/31), +1,770. The amplitude of Wave C reaches 99.9% of Wave A, nearly equal in length, indicating very strong rebound strength, but 74,154 failed to break the high of Wave A at 74,222, forming a "failed Wave C" or "double top" structure.
Current (post Wave C correction): 74,154 → 73,508 (5/31), -646. After Wave C ends, a correction phase begins.
Wave conclusion: The five-wave decline is complete. The A-B-C corrective wave's Wave C rebound is nearly equal in length to Wave A (+1,770 vs +1,772), but failed to surpass the high of Wave A at 74,222, forming a failed Wave C. After Wave C ends, a correction is underway. If support is found around 73,000–73,300 and the price breaks above 74,222 again, a new upward impulsive wave is confirmed; if it falls below 72,384, the A-B-C correction fails, and the downtrend resumes.
4. Volume-Price Relationship
Overall volume-price features: On May 31, there was a "volume surge and pullback" characteristic. Total volume was 4.92B, significantly higher than May 30's 1.15B but below May 28's 10.98B. Early morning volume was moderate during the surge, volume shrank during the afternoon decline, and volume increased again during the rebound at the close.
Key volume-price nodes:
- 01:00–01:15 on May 31: Small bullish candle with long upper shadow (body 36, upper shadow 213), from 73,905 to 74,154, volume 0.27B, indicating selling pressure above 74,000 is emerging.
- 14:00 on May 31: Large bearish candle (body -268), from 73,762 to 73,414, with very low volume, showing rapid decline after liquidity exhaustion.
- 16:00 on May 31: Bearish candle with long lower shadow (body -117, lower shadow 332), from 73,543 to 73,288, showing buy support near 73,300, forming a "hammer" bullish pattern.
- 20:00–21:00 on May 31: Consecutive volume-increasing bullish candles (volume 0.93B + 0.86B), from 73,467 to 73,788, indicating buy support at low levels.
- 23:00 on May 31: Volume-increasing bearish candle (volume 0.95B), from 73,843 to 73,508, body -335, upper shadow 222, showing persistent selling pressure above 74,000.
The last 10 five-minute candles: From 73,843 oscillating down to 73,508, with alternating volume patterns of increasing volume on up moves, decreasing on down moves, indicating intense volatility in the 73,300–74,000 range.
Volume-price conclusion: The volume surge and pullback on May 31 (4.92B) shows very heavy selling pressure above 74,000–74,200. After encountering strong resistance at 74,154, bulls quickly retreated. However, near 73,300, a "hammer" plus volume-increasing bullish candles suggest willingness to support at low levels. The market is in a fierce battle within the 73,300–74,000 zone. If subsequent rebounds to around 74,000 show volume stagnation, it confirms bearish dominance; if volume increases on a breakdown below 73,288, a new decline begins.
5. Order Flow
Volume Profile: The recent 6 days' volume control point (POC) is at 73,367, the area with the densest trading between bulls and bears. Current price at 73,508 is about 141 above POC, indicating the market has recovered from a deep discount zone to the value area, with forces balancing.
Current analysis: Price at 73,508 is above POC 73,367, in the value area (Above Value). In order flow theory, returning above POC suggests short-term buyers are gaining advantage, but the May 31 surge and pullback show strong resistance above 74,000. The current price oscillates near POC; if it stabilizes above POC, it may recover to 74,000–74,500; if it falls below POC, the downtrend resumes.
High Volume Nodes (HVN):
- 77,059–77,191: Resistance HVN (completely broken)
- 75,658–75,790: Mid resistance HVN (broken)
- 74,717–74,849: Core resistance HVN (area of high volume at the 5/29 V high)
- 73,300–73,800: Current POC zone HVN (most trading in last 3 days)
- 72,450–72,639: Support HVN below (area of high volume at 5/28–29 low points)
Delta analysis: The delta estimate shows that during the surge at 01:00 on May 31, delta briefly turned positive but then quickly turned negative, confirming that active selling above 74,000 dominates. During the afternoon decline, delta remained negative, indicating continued active selling. At 16:00, delta briefly turned negative then positive again, confirming buy support near 73,300. During the rebound at 20:00–21:00, delta surged positive (+1 billion level), showing buyer strength recovered. During the decline at 23:00, delta turned negative again, indicating persistent selling pressure. Currently, Delta MA12 oscillates near zero, suggesting forces are balanced.
Order flow conclusion: Price above POC 73,367 indicates short-term buyers have a slight advantage. The key resistance is at 74,000–74,200 (HVN), and support is at 73,300 (POC). If delta remains positive with volume breakout above 74,200, it may recover to above 75,000; if delta turns negative again and price drops below 73,288, the risk of falling to 72,384 is high.
6. Price Action
Support and resistance levels:
- Strong resistance: 82,448 (phase high), 78,002 (5/26 high), 76,022 (5/27 rebound high)
- Key resistance: 74,500 (5/29 V high), 74,222 (5/29 peak), 74,154 (5/31 peak), 74,000 (psychological level)
- Key support: 73,367 (POC), 73,288 (5/31 low), 73,118 (5/30 low), 73,000 (psychological level), 72,450 (5/28 low), 72,384 (5/29 flash crash low)
Candlestick patterns:
- 01:15 on May 31: Small bullish candle with super long upper shadow (body 36, upper shadow 213), near 74,154, indicating heavy overhead selling pressure, forming a "shooting star" bearish pattern.
- 14:00 on May 31: Large bearish candle (body -268), from 73,762 to 73,414, showing active selling in the afternoon.
- 16:00 on May 31: Hammer with long lower shadow (body -117, lower shadow 332), near 73,288, indicating buy support around 73,300, forming a "hammer" bullish pattern.
- 20:00–21:00 on May 31: Consecutive volume-increasing bullish candles from 73,467 to 73,788, indicating buy support at low levels.
- 23:00 on May 31: Volume-increasing bearish candle (body -335, upper shadow 222), from 73,843 to 73,508, showing persistent overhead selling pressure.
Trend structure:
- Short-term: Transition from a slow upward channel to a converging triangle (support line connecting 72,384, 73,118, 73,288 vs. resistance line connecting 74,222, 74,022, 74,154).
- Medium-term: The downtrend since May 22 at 77,829 is still ongoing, but the decline slope has slowed significantly, forming a complex bottom.
Price action conclusion: The short-term is at the end of a converging triangle, with heavy resistance above 74,000–74,200 and support gradually rising at 73,300. 74,000 is the critical dividing line: a volume breakout confirms a short-term bottom, targeting 74,500 → 75,000; if resisted and falls back, test support at 73,288 → 72,384.
Overall assessment:
Dow signals the main trend is downward but with weakening downward momentum, short-term trend is oscillating slightly bearish, with key levels at 74,200 (up) and 73,288 (down). Chan Theory shows downward strokes remain strong, but upward strokes (+1,772, +1,638) sharply weaken to +132, indicating bulls encounter strong resistance above 74,000 and quickly exhaust. Bottom patterns show higher lows (72,384 → 73,118 → 73,288), but top patterns also show higher highs (74,022 → 74,154), forming a converging triangle. Elliott Wave suggests the five-wave decline is complete, with Wave C nearly equal in length to Wave A (+1,770 vs +1,772), but failed to surpass Wave A's high at 74,222, indicating a failed Wave C, now in a correction phase. Volume-price features on May 31 show volume surge and pullback (4.92B), with very heavy resistance above 74,000, but support at 73,300 indicated by "hammer" and volume candles. Order flow shows POC at 73,367, with price above POC, and delta oscillating near zero, indicating forces are balanced. Price action shows "shooting star," "hammer," and "converging triangle" patterns, with short-term oscillating bearish bias.
Short-term strategy suggestions:
- Bullish bias: If price near 73,288–73,300 shows decreasing volume, bottom pattern lifts, and delta turns positive, consider small long positions targeting 74,000 → 74,200, with stop-loss at 72,800.
- Bearish bias: If rebounds to 74,000–74,200 form top patterns with volume decline, confirming Wave C failure and new decline, consider short positions targeting 73,000 → 72,384, with stop-loss at 74,500.
- Current state: At 73,508 in the middle of the converging triangle, with a slight bearish bias. Wait for a breakout: volume breakout above 74,200 to go long, or breakdown below 73,288 to go short. Within 73,288–74,200, light positions or range trading is recommended.