The market opened on Monday, enduring the adrenaline-pumping first hour:

- Gold gapped down at the open, U.S. stock futures quickly declined, but both recovered their losses afterward;
- Oil prices gapped higher at the open, but the rally was limited by technical resistance levels, giving other markets some breathing room;
- U.S. Treasury bonds edged slightly higher, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remaining below 4.45%.
So far, everything is fine.

First, the opening trend was a reaction to the lack of progress on Iran issues. But oil only paused its 10-minute rally, and gold only dipped for 5 minutes before rebounding.
After “10 minutes and 5 minutes,” things quieted down, and the market completed a quick “panic drop and recovery” cycle.
Although negotiations stalled, the broader framework of a “60-day temporary ceasefire” has not been completely overturned, and with oil reaching technical resistance levels, no one dares to act rashly.

Second, the second risk point today is in the evening, with a high likelihood of Iran-related news.
No news will be seen as bad news by the market.
U.S.-Iran negotiations remain unresolved and are a potential source of future market volatility.
The risk is that Trump continues to promote the imminent deal, misleading market sentiment, but so far, Iran has remained silent on the matter.
According to a report from Iran’s Tasnim News Agency, both sides are still proposing amendments to the agreement, but ultimately, both the U.S. and Iran may reject these changes, leading to a breakdown of the deal.

Third, what has happened in the market over the past two weeks can be summarized in one sentence:
Bet everything on “bad news will not continue to worsen.”
Bet on the U.S. and Iran signing the final agreement, oil prices continuing to fall, and AI driving profit growth—this logical chain is very elegant.
The problem lies here: if any link in this chain fails, the foundation of this rally will be challenged.
Before the U.S. and Iran give a definitive sign-off or throw a tantrum, abandon the obsession with unilateral long or short positions.