## 🥇 June 1st Gold Morning Report

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### 1. Core Data

| Indicator | Value | Change |
|------|------|------|
| Spot Gold Price | **$4,542/oz** | Flat for the week |
| 7-day Change | +$36.79 (+0.81%) | Slight rebound |
| 30-day Change | -$79.09 (-1.71%) | Monthly decline |
| From All-Time High | $5,592 (1/29) | **-18.8%** |
| 52-week Range | $3,254 - $5,592 | Currently centered |
| Shanghai Gold Exchange AU9999 | ¥993/gram | Down 5% from May high of ¥1,044 |

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### 2. Macro Environment This Week (Key Turning Point)

**US-Iran Ceasefire Progress → Oil Price Plunge → Mixed Gold Outlook**

| Factor | Change | Impact on Gold |
|------|------|--------------|
| WTI Crude | $92.1/barrel (**Down 11.1% this week**) | Inflation expectations ↓ → Rate cut expectations ↑ → Bullish |
| 10Y US Treasury | 4.453% (-11bp) | Real interest rate ↓ → Bullish |
| 30Y US Treasury | 4.993% (-7bp, back below 5%) | Opportunity cost of holding gold ↓ → Bullish |
| US Dollar Index | 98.93 (-0.41%) | Dollar weakens → Bullish |
| PCE Inflation | 3.8% (2-year high) | Stagflation signals → Bullish |
| GDP | Revised down to 1.6% | Economic slowdown → Bullish |

**Core Contradiction**: The oil price plunge eases inflation fears → rate hike expectations cool → US Treasury yields fall → Bullish for gold. But geopolitical easing also weakens safe-haven demand. These forces are hedging around $4,540. [来源](
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机构卖

| 维度 | 状态 | 细节 |
|------|------|------|
| **央行购金** | 🟢 持续 | Q1全球央行净购244吨，连续19个月净买入；中国央行连续18个月增持，储备达7464万盎司 |
| **ETF资金** | 🔴 流出 | SPDR上周减仓5.7吨至1029吨；3月全球黄金ETF单月流出$120B创纪录 |
| **COMEX基金** | 🟡 极低 | 净持仓479.8吨（较峰值980吨腰斩），多头624吨为2019年6月以来最低 |
| **印度需求** | 🔴 重挫 | 5/13关税6%→15%，4月进口降47%，银行一度停发进口 |

**Justin Lin（Global X ETFs策略师）关键判断**：
- 交易员正失去对黄金避险叙事的信心
- $4,500失守后下一支撑$4,000-$4,250
- 高利率环境下黄金无息属性被持续压制

**但反过来想**：COMEX基金多头持仓已到2年极低位，历史上这种位置后续金价上涨概率偏高。
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### 四、技术面

| 关键位 | 价位 | 意义 |
|--------|------|------|
| 200日均线 | **$4,541** | 多空必争之地，5/30触及$4,595未站稳 |
| 短期支撑 | $4,360-$4,400 | 上周V型反转起点 |
| 中期支撑 | $4,000-$4,250 | Global X给出的"终极防线" |
| 短期阻力 | $4,600 | 前期密集成交区 |
| 中期阻力 | $4,800 | 5月初破位下行起点 |

**6月历史季节性**：平均回报-0.5%，胜率仅40%，传统淡季。

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### 五、本周重点关注

| 日期 | 事件 | 影响 |
|------|------|------|
| 6/2(周一) | ISM Manufacturing PMI | ⭐⭐⭐ Economic Health |
| 6/4 (Wednesday) | ISM Services PMI | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Greater Weight |
| 6/5 (Thursday) | Non-farm Payrolls | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Biggest Catalyst This Week |
| 6/10 (Tuesday) | CPI Data | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Directly Influences Fed Expectations |
| 6/16-17 | FOMC Meeting (Warsh's Debut) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Most Important Meeting of the Year |

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**1️⃣ Short-term gold oscillates between $4,400-$4,600, the 200-day moving average is the battle line**

Basis: Last week’s V-shaped rebound to $4,540, but failed to hold above $4,595; COMEX bullish positions at very low levels suggest selling pressure is exhausted, but ETF outflows continue to suppress upside. $4,541 (200-day MA) will be contested repeatedly this week.

**2️⃣ Non-farm payroll data determines short-term direction**

Basis: Strong payrolls → rate hike expectations rise → gold pressured; Weak payrolls → recession fears + rate cut expectations → gold rebounds. Currently, the market prices a 59% chance of rate hikes this year, any weaker-than-expected data could undermine this expectation.

**3️⃣ Stagflation environment is the biggest medium-term support for gold, but short-term selling by institutions offsets this**

Basis: PCE 3.8% + GDP 1.6% = classic stagflation combo, historically very friendly to gold. But 10Y Treasury at 4.45% + 30Y approaching 5% means opportunity cost remains high, and institutions are still selling in the short term.

**4️⃣ June seasonally weak, but central bank gold purchases support the $4,000-$4,400 range**

Basis: June has only a 40% historical win rate for gold, but central banks buy 60 tons monthly (Goldman Sachs forecast), forming a bottom support. $4,000-$4,400 is the "iron bottom."

**5️⃣ Medium-term bullish logic unchanged, wait for buying opportunities in the short term**

Basis: Extremely low hedge fund long positions + continuous central bank accumulation + stagflation environment—when all three conditions align, historical 3-6 month returns average around +12%. But wait for ETF outflows to slow or non-farm data to confirm.

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⚠️ **Risk Warning**: Unexpectedly strong non-farm payrolls could break below $4,400 support; if the June 16 FOMC signals hawkishness, gold may dip to $4,000; India tariffs and ETF outflows still suppress physical demand in the short term.

🪨 The current position is somewhat awkward—stuck right at the 200-day moving average. This week’s non-farm payroll data is the key to breaking the deadlock; patience and wait for the data.