U.S.-Iran deadlock + rising inflation expectations—this week’s macro data is packed. Keep a close watch on Non-Farm Payrolls and the direction signaled by AI conference headlines.

Last week, the US-Iran negotiation framework initially appeared but fell into a deadlock, with core disagreements over nuclear issues and strait sovereignty. The US initial jobless claims were 215k, April core PCE was 3.3%, and Michigan confidence dropped to 44.8 with inflation expectations rising. The Bank of Japan warned of the challenges the fifth oil price shock poses to inflation, and the ECB minutes indicated rising inflation risks requiring observation. US GDP for Q1 2026 was revised to 1.6%. This week will focus on AI conferences, technology summits, and US-EU economic data, including ADP, May unemployment rate, and non-farm payrolls.