Wu's weekly macro indicators and analysis: US-Iran negotiations progress, US non-farm employment, AI conference

Compilation: GaryMa | Wu Talks Blockchain

Summary

A US-Iran negotiation framework initially emerged last week but fell into an extreme standstill; this week, focus is on subsequent progress in the US-Iran negotiations, AI-related conferences, and US non-farm data, including non-farm payrolls.

Last Week’s Review

A US-Iran negotiation framework initially emerged but fell into an extreme standstill: a draft MOU containing a 60-day ceasefire, lifting the maritime blockade, and unfreezing assets was leaked around the 25th. On the 28th, the US side said representatives had reached an agreement and were awaiting Trump’s approval; Iran immediately denied that the text had been finalized, according to CGTN. On the 29th, Trump held a war briefing and put forward a harshly revised version, requiring the clearance and destruction of Iran’s highly enriched uranium. On the 30th, Iran firmly refused to make concessions, announced the implementation of sovereignty jurisdiction over the Strait of Hormuz, and demanded that commercial vessels obtain permission in advance; the US threatened sanctions, while the military reiterated that it has the capability to restart hostilities. By the 31st, Trump said Iran agreed not to develop nuclear weapons, but the two major core disagreements—“nuclear status” and “strait sovereignty”—remained unresolved, and the negotiations became trapped in a serious deadlock amid a low-intensity standoff.

For the week ending May 23, the number of US initial jobless claims was 215k, against an expected 211k. The prior figure of 209k was revised to 210k.

US April core PCE inflation, year-on-year, was 3.3%, matching the expectation of 3.30%, down from 3.20% previously.

The University of Michigan’s May final consumer sentiment index fell to 44.8, dropping for the third consecutive month and approaching the June 2022 historical low. The survey noted that supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz pushed up oil prices; 57% of consumers said high prices are eroding their personal finances. At the same time, concerns about inflation among consumers continued to intensify: one-year inflation expectations rose from 4.7% to 4.8%, while long-term inflation expectations rose from 3.5% to 3.9%.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivered remarks at the Bank of Japan Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies international conference in Tokyo, warning that the world is currently facing a “fifth oil price shock,” and said this is becoming a comprehensive test of Japan’s overall inflation transmission mechanism, which may further reinforce market expectations for rate hikes.

European Central Bank meeting minutes: inflation risks have surfaced, and it is increasingly inappropriate to keep waiting and seeing “it’s getting more and more inappropriate.”

The US 2026 Q1 real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate revised value was 1.6%. This figure was revised down by 0.4 percentage points from the initial value of 2.0%, below market expectations of 2.0%, mainly reflecting downward revisions to private inventory investment and personal consumption expenditures.

Key Events & Indicators This Week

June 01

Yushu Technology’s Sci-Tech Innovation Board IPO will be reviewed on June 1 (final defense meeting)

NVIDIA’s GTC Taipei 2026 conference opens, with Jensen Huang delivering a keynote speech

June 02

Microsoft’s annual developer conference, expected to release a series of entirely new AI models

ComputeX conference, with NVIDIA expected to showcase the next-generation AI computing architecture

June 03

US May ADP employment figures (ten thousand people) (20:15)

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivers remarks (16:30)

June 04

The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book (02:00)

US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 30 (ten thousand people) (20:30)

June 05

US May unemployment rate (20:30)

US May seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll employment (ten thousand people) (20:30)