#TradFi交易分享挑战 Precious metals market continues to fluctuate, with silver maintaining relatively high volatility throughout the week, mainly influenced by the repeated progress of US-Iran negotiations and the ongoing market expectations of interest rate hikes not being alleviated.

The overall precious metals sector shows a volatile trend, with silver continuing its high volatility characteristics, primarily affected by the repeated news about US-Iran negotiations and the suppression from rate hike expectations.
Geopolitically, the US-Iran negotiation process is advancing amid twists and turns. Early in the week, Trump frequently stated that the US-Iran negotiations were progressing smoothly, and according to media reports such as Cailian News, both sides reached an understanding on Iran's frozen financial assets, signaling geopolitical easing to the market and providing ongoing support at the bottom for precious metals. However, Iran also stated that media reports of the US-Iran understanding memorandum are fabricated, and both Iran’s Supreme Leader and Trump have not agreed to the current plan. Coupled with ongoing small-scale military frictions between the two sides, the uncertainty about the conflict’s direction continues to exert pressure on precious metals.
Regarding economic data, the US April core PCE aligned with expectations, and Q1 GDP was far below expectations, raising concerns about economic slowdown and weakening rate hike expectations, thus easing pressure on precious metals. Overall, short-term upward momentum for precious metals is insufficient for a breakout, and support levels remain relatively solid, likely continuing to show a volatile pattern in the short term.
In terms of US economic data, the labor market remains generally stable, inflation levels have strengthened but not exceeded expectations, and Q1 GDP was below expectations, heightening concerns about economic slowdown. The US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for May was 93.1, expected 92, previous 92.8.
Within the four weeks ending May 9, US private sector employers added an average of 35,750 jobs per week, slowing from 40,750 in the previous week.
US April core PCE increased by 0.2% month-on-month, below the forecast of 0.3%, with the previous value at 0.3%. The US April core PCE price index rose 3.3% year-on-year, matching expectations. The April PCE price index increased by 0.4% month-on-month, below the expected 0.5%. The PCE price index rose 3.8% year-on-year in April, in line with expectations.
US Q1 real GDP annualized quarterly rate was revised up by 1.6%, from an initial 2%.
Regarding Federal Reserve movements, after the April core PCE release, Fed officials’ attitudes were generally neutral, and concerns about rate hikes eased. NY Fed President Williams and Vice Chair Jefferson stated that current monetary policy remains appropriate. Fed Chair Kashkari also indicated that immediate rate hikes are "premature" after the April core PCE release. Fed Board Member Bowman showed a dovish tendency during the April FOMC meeting, reducing market concerns about rate hikes. However, Fed Governor Mester emphasized the need for the Fed to demonstrate "inflation-fighting resolve," and Fed official Musialem believes that inflation reduction still requires time, so short-term rate hike concerns persist.
Geopolitically, the US-Iran negotiations are progressing amid twists and turns, with the overall situation easing, providing some support for precious metals. Early in the week, Trump stated that negotiations were progressing smoothly, and the US considered lifting sanctions on Iran’s financial assets. Some media reports during the week claimed that a US-Iran memorandum was once reached, with frequent signals of easing supporting precious metals. However, uncertainties remain, such as the Iranian Supreme Leader and Trump not having expressed agreement on the deal, and ongoing small-scale military frictions between the US and Iran during the week and weekend. Structural easing signals from Iran have not appeared, and geopolitical pressure on precious metals remains.
Overall, the recent volatile trend in precious metals is mainly driven by geopolitical signals’ fluctuations and fears of rate hike expectations. Short-term upward momentum is insufficient, and a clearer US-Iran situation and a less aggressive Fed rate hike outlook are needed for a sustained rally. $XAGUSD