#TradFi交易分享挑战 Precious metals market continues to fluctuate, with silver maintaining relatively high volatility throughout the week, mainly influenced by the repeated progress of US-Iran negotiations and the ongoing market expectations of interest rate hikes.

The overall precious metals sector shows a volatile trend, with silver continuing its high volatility characteristics, primarily affected by the repeated news about US-Iran negotiations and the pressure from interest rate hike expectations. Geopolitically, the US-Iran negotiation process is advancing amid setbacks. Early in the week, Trump frequently stated that the US-Iran negotiations were progressing smoothly, and according to media reports such as Caixin, both sides reached an understanding on Iran's frozen financial assets, signaling geopolitical easing to the market and providing ongoing support at the bottom for precious metals. However, Iran also stated that media reports of the US-Iran understanding memorandum are fabricated, and both Iran's Supreme Leader and Trump have not agreed to the current plan. Coupled with ongoing small-scale military frictions between the two sides, the uncertainty about the conflict's direction continues to exert pressure on precious metals. Regarding economic data, the US April core PCE aligned with expectations, and Q1 GDP was significantly below expectations, raising concerns about economic slowdown and weakening the expectation of rate hikes, thus easing pressure on precious metals. Overall, short-term upward momentum for precious metals is insufficient for a breakout, and support levels remain relatively solid, likely continuing to show a volatile pattern in the short term.

In terms of US economic data, the labor market remains generally stable, inflation levels have strengthened but not beyond expectations, and Q1 GDP was below forecasts, intensifying concerns about economic slowdown. The US May Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was 93.1, versus an expected 92 and a previous value of 92.8. In the four weeks ending May 9, US private sector employers added an average of 35,750 jobs per week, slowing from 40,750 in the previous week. The US April core PCE price index increased by 0.2% month-over-month, below the expected 0.3%, with the previous value at 0.3%. The US April core PCE price index rose 3.3% year-over-year, matching expectations. The US April PCE price index increased by 0.4% month-over-month, below the expected 0.5%. The US April PCE price index rose 3.8% year-over-year, in line with expectations. The real GDP annualized quarterly rate for Q1 was revised up by 1.6%, from an initial estimate of 2%.

Regarding Federal Reserve movements, after the April core PCE release, Fed officials' attitudes were generally neutral, and concerns about rate hikes eased. New York Fed President Williams and Vice Chair Jefferson stated that current monetary policy remains appropriate. Fed regional president Kashkari also indicated that immediate rate hikes are "premature" following the April core PCE release. Fed Board Member Bostic showed a dovish stance at the April FOMC meeting, reducing market fears of rate hikes. However, Fed Board Member Schemmel emphasized that the Fed needs to demonstrate "inflation resistance," and Fed official Musialem believes that inflation reduction still requires time, so concerns about rate hikes remain in the short term.

Geopolitically, the US-Iran negotiations are progressing amid setbacks, with the overall situation easing, providing some support for precious metals. Early in the week, Trump stated that negotiations were going well, and the US considered lifting sanctions on Iran's financial assets. Some media reports claimed that a US-Iran memorandum was reached midweek, with frequent signals of easing supporting precious metals. However, uncertainties remain, such as the fact that Iran's Supreme Leader and Trump have not agreed to the current agreement, and small-scale military frictions between the US and Iran continued midweek and over the weekend. No structural easing signals from Iran have appeared, and geopolitical pressure on precious metals remains.

Overall, the recent volatile trend in precious metals is mainly driven by geopolitical signals' fluctuations and fears of rate hikes. Short-term upward momentum is insufficient, and a clearer US-Iran situation and a less aggressive Fed rate hike expectation are needed before a sustained rally. $XAGUSD