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📉 Short-term trend (1-2 weeks)
Currently in a consolidation after a sharp decline, daily chart remains bearish/neutral:
• Key support: $72,400–$73,000 (short-term strong support), breaking below targets the $70k round number
• Key resistance: $74,500–$75,000 (short-term) → $77,000–$79k (strong resistance/weak hands zone), need daily close above $76k-$77k to reverse the bearish structure
• US spot BTC ETF experienced net outflows in May overall, institutions are short-term cashing out, buying momentum is weak; high US bond yields also suppress risk assets
🔮 Medium-term outlook (Q2-Q3)
• Base scenario (higher probability): Continue to fluctuate within $70,000–$78,000 range in June, building a bottom, awaiting Federal Reserve's June FOMC and macro liquidity signals
• Bullish bias: If ETF resumes net inflows + breaks through $79k, expect to retest $80k+
• Bearish bias: If macroeconomic data turns more hawkish than expected or falls below $70k, may test $66k-$68k