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Next week's macro outlook: US-Iran negotiations enter a critical window, non-farm payroll and unemployment rate data upcoming
BlockBeats News, May 31—Regarding the US-Iran ceasefire agreement and the issue of the Strait of Hormuz being opened, Trump said that the agreement is close to being reached and demanded that Iran give up its nuclear weapons capability and open the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, meanwhile, denied that it has approved the final text of the agreement and stressed that differences still exist over the relevant arrangements. US Secretary of Defense Hegseth warned that if negotiations fail, the US is prepared to resume military action against Iran. If next week the US and Iran can further confirm an extension of the ceasefire or reach a phased agreement, risk assets may continue to benefit, while oil prices and safe-haven assets could face a new choice of direction.
On the macro front, next week the US will see key economic data, including the May non-farm payrolls seasonally adjusted and the May unemployment rate. At the same time, multiple Federal Reserve officials will deliver remarks, and the market will further assess the balance between the US economic slowdown and inflation pressures, as well as changes in the future interest-rate path. The focus times are as follows:
Monday 11:00, the NVIDIA GTC Taipei 2026 conference opens, and Jensen Huang delivers the keynote speech.
Tuesday 13:50, FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari delivers remarks; 20:30, FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack speaks on monetary policy; 22:00, US April JOLTs job openings;
Wednesday 20:15, US May ADP employment report; 22:00, US May ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI;
Thursday 02:00, the Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book; 20:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 30;
Friday 01:10, San Francisco Fed President Daly delivers remarks; 20:30, US May seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls and the US May unemployment rate.
Meanwhile, AI remains the core theme driving the rise in global risk assets. As the corporate earnings season moves toward its end, the market will continue to watch the performance of companies such as CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, and Broadcom, to see whether the AI investment boom can keep spreading into more industries. After US stocks ended May at record highs, the market will also face the traditional “June Swoon” test. In a midterm election year, June is historically the worst month for US stocks, and investors widely expect the market may be about to enter a period of short-term consolidation.