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This Week's NASDAQ Market Analysis

Key Conclusion: Technical breakout has been realized, but momentum is diverging

From May 26 to 30, 2026, the Nasdaq 100 Index closed at a historic 30,001.32 points, up 1.76% for the week, with trading volume exceeding $352 billion, becoming the first tech index in 2026 to stabilize above the 30k-point mark. This is not hype-driven speculation but a structural breakthrough driven by AI computing power demand, hardware repairs, and capital inflows. However, in the second half of the week, gains narrowed, leading stocks showed increased divergence, and the market is shifting from “broad rally” to “selective picking.”

1. Market Trend: Breakout with volume, but willingness to chase high weakens

On Monday, the index surged 1.76% to break through 30k points strongly, with daily volume hitting a new high for the year, and market sentiment was high. On Tuesday, it rose slightly to 30,055 points, but Nvidia dipped 0.22%, indicating cautious investor sentiment ahead of earnings reports. On Wednesday, a slight pullback occurred, closing at 29,987 points, affected by rising US bond yields, leading to profit-taking in tech stocks. On Thursday, a mild rebound to 30,013 points, with Apple up 1.26%, boosting consumer electronics sentiment. On Friday, it closed at 30,001 points, flat for the week, confirming 30k as a key support level. Overall, after the breakout, volume gradually declined, and the market entered a validation phase, with increased tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

2. Technical Indicators: Trend not broken, but overbought signals emerging

RSI(14) is at 65.13, in the buy zone but not yet overbought, leaving room for further upside. The MACD histogram remains positive but is clearly converging, with the DIF and DEA narrowing, indicating weakening bullish momentum and potential for a golden cross turning into a death cross. The Bollinger Bands show the index near the upper band at 30,350 points, with the middle band at 29,850 points providing solid support, and the lower band at 29,350 points serving as medium-term strong support. The 5-day moving average is at 29,920 points, with prices staying above it, indicating a healthy short-term trend. Overall, no reversal signals are present technically, but momentum is slowing, suggesting possible consolidation in the short term.

3. Key Support and Resistance Levels: 30k is a threshold, not the end point

The current core support zone is between 29,750 and 29,850 points, where the pre-May 26 high and the 5-day moving average resonate, also aligning with the lower edge of the gap from May 15. Breaking below this could trigger technical selling pressure. Deeper medium-term support is at 29,350 points, coinciding with the lower Bollinger Band and the 200-day moving average (29,280). Short-term resistance is at 30,200 to 30,300 points, the area of this week’s high and psychological integer levels, with a breakout potentially opening an upward channel. Medium-term resistance lies between 30,400 and 30,600 points, corresponding to the pre-April 2026 high and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The 31,000 mark remains a psychological milestone that requires sustained volume to achieve.

4. Driving Logic: Who is pushing the NASDAQ higher?

The rally is not driven by a single leader but by dual forces: AI infrastructure and consumer electronics recovery. Apple rose 1.26%, benefiting from increased expectations for iPhone 17 and AI feature implementation; Microsoft contributed significantly, with Azure AI revenue growth exceeding 40% and Copilot enterprise penetration surpassing 35%; AMD performed well, up nearly 4% for the week, with AI server chip orders exceeding expectations, fueling a narrative of substitution; Meta rose 1.52%, with AI advertising models improving conversion rates, boosting ad revenue. In contrast, Nvidia dipped 0.22%, but institutional investors remain generally overweight, with no substantial order decline. The market is shifting from “betting on Nvidia” to “diversified AI ecosystem deployment,” with AMD, Meta, and Microsoft becoming new focal points.

5. Market Outlook: From “Breakthrough” to “Validation”

Goldman Sachs believes tech stocks remain the best asset class in 2026, with the 30k-point breakthrough signaling trend continuation rather than a bubble peak. Morgan Stanley indicates that the AI capital expenditure cycle has not peaked yet, with enterprise AI spending expected to accelerate in Q3, and any pullback seen as a buying opportunity. Bloomberg emphasizes that although valuations are high, earnings growth is aligned; if Q2 earnings reports from Microsoft, Meta, and Apple exceed expectations in AI-related revenue, 31,000 points could be within reach. Market consensus focuses on three key events in June: Nvidia’s earnings, Federal Reserve rate decision, and China’s AI policy implementation. If these variables turn positive, the NASDAQ could enter a second major rally wave. $MMM