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#TradFi交易分享挑战
What happened to Moderna, which plummeted 95% from its peak?
Revenue cliff: COVID-19 vaccine revenue plummeted from $18.4 billion in 2021 to $1.9 billion in 2025, accounting for over 80% of total revenue, with no alternative pillar after demand vanished.
Pipeline has data but no revenue: Cancer vaccine (mRNA-4157) and flu vaccine (mRNA-1010) show promising clinical data, but commercialization paths are unclear, with high costs, payment difficulties, and strong competition.
Policy-driven price cuts: The IRA Act mandates a 25–40% price reduction, squeezing profits on core pipeline products.
Market awakening: No longer paying for the “technological halo,” only recognizing “profitable business models.”
Conclusion: The stock price isn’t crashing; it’s a valuation shift from “pandemic speculation” back to the essence of “innovative biotech companies.”
Key points for 2026: Approval of the flu vaccine + launch of cancer vaccine sales. Otherwise, $40 may become the new baseline. $MRNA