Did you miss last week’s “Golden Pit”? How to look ahead and forecast June’s gold prices? $XAUUSD

In-depth review | The three-part logic behind the sharp drop in gold prices, plus trading strategies and a plan for the 4425–4736 range of fluctuations in June

Last week, gold staged a jaw-dropping “reverse V” reversal.

After rallying to a historical high of 4595.26, the price failed to hold its ground. Instead, it plunged late in the session and ultimately slid back to 4539.93. This long upper wick was not only a precise shakeout for highly leveraged long positions, but also a preview of the June market’s turning point.

I believe this isn’t just a pullback—it’s a shift in the underlying logic. Based on the latest developments in the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and geopolitics, I’ll lay out a full projection of gold’s trajectory in June.

01 Why did it crash? Three layers of pressure hit at once

This adjustment is not without warning signs; the key lies in “expectation revision”:

The Fed’s “high-pressure” stance continues: U.S. economic data (PMI, CPI) keeps coming in above expectations, shattering market fantasies of rate cuts. U.S. bond yields remain at high levels, and the U.S. Dollar Index rebounds to above 99.5, directly weakening the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset.

Geopolitical premium fading: As signs of easing emerge in the Middle East (for example, progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations), safe-haven funds are pulling back from the gold market.

Technical resonance: The break of the 4500 psychological level triggered stop-loss orders from algorithmic trading, intensifying the selloff.

02 June playbook: first suppress, then rally—wide-range consolidation

Looking ahead to June, I believe the market will trade around the big box of “4425–4736,” with the key theme being “first suppress, then rally.”

👉 Monthly low: 4425 USD/ounce

⏰ Time window: June 12 (Thursday) evening 20:30 - 22:30

The logic is that mid-June falls right before the Fed’s policy meeting. If the U.S. PPI and consumer confidence index released on the night of June 12 remain strong, it will further reinforce expectations of “higher interest rates for a longer time.” The market will use this as a bearish catalyst to thoroughly cleanse the high-position chips, pushing prices toward the strong support area of 4420–4430. This will be the “Golden Pit” that the main force drives prices into.

👉 Monthly high: 4736 USD/ounce

⏰ Time window: June 25 (Wednesday) evening 21:15 - 22:45

As June moves into its second half, the script will reverse. With the end of the second quarter approaching, weakness in economic data may start to surface (watch the Q1 GDP revision figure and initial jobless claims). More importantly, with the U.S. presidential election drawing near, politicians (such as Trump) may create new uncertainties in tariffs and external policies to win votes. At that point, the dual drivers of “economic recession + geopolitical turmoil” will push gold prices back up again, even challenging new highs.

03 Final thoughts

For current positioning, it’s recommended to stay patient:

First half of the month: Avoid blindly chasing highs; beware of aftershocks caused by hawkish Fed commentary.

Mid-month: Focus on stabilization signals around 4425—this is a good opportunity to set up long positions.

Late month: Move with the trend and position for a potential rally toward the end of the month.

The market is always changing; only the logic stays the same. June is destined to be a month of wide-range consolidation. Control your position sizing—we’ll wait and see.