Information is flying everywhere—how fake US-Iran news steals your principal, and the brutal way to tell the truth

The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs denies the agreement being finalized, yet Trump lets the Vice President float that it’s “basically settled.” Polymarket assigns a 41% probability of a permanent agreement by the end of July… In this information war, are you still just eating the gossip?

The first iron rule for professional investors to separate real news from noise: **Never trust anything but the original source—never trust secondhand interpretations.** White House Situation Room meeting records, the original text on the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs website, and the original telegrams from Reuters/Al Jazeera are stronger by a factor of 10,000 than any Chinese self-media. As for those clickbait headlines like “US and Iran have achieved permanent peace! The crypto market is about to take off!”—99% of them are garbage paid for by traffic fees.

Second: look at actions, not words. Has the Strait of Hormuz actually been reopened? Have oil tanker insurance rates dropped significantly? Have US aircraft carrier battle groups withdrawn? These are the hard metrics. The MOU from May 28–30 is only a “temporary understanding,” not a peace treaty—either side can tear it up with a missile strike.

Third: quantify the noise. Score news by “falsifiability.” Only what can be verified by third-party satellite images, real-time oil price data, and on-chain fund flows earns a high score; the rest is just emotional trash. The most expensive tuition in the crypto world is treating Trump’s tweets as policy and the threats from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard as facts.

Wake up, brothers. In this information war, the media and KOLs are the biggest forces for shorting. They make money off fear and greed—you survive by judgment.