This morning, while tidying up the desk, I found an old alarm clock and was reminded that these days, watching the markets feels like being awakened by it: when the supply of stablecoins rises and ETF net inflows increase, some people start to imagine "off-market funds coming in = immediate surge." Frankly, the correlation is very easy to fool oneself; the money coming in might just be for rebalancing, hedging, or preparing for arbitrage, and not necessarily directly turning into spot buying.

Recently, there's been ongoing chatter about interest rate cut expectations, and sometimes the US dollar index and risk assets move together, rising and falling in unison, which is quite mysterious... But I prefer to see it as "emotional resonance," and not rush to draw causal conclusions. Anyway, when I see high APRs now, I first turn off the alarm clock and calm down for ten minutes, calculate the real annualized return and exit costs clearly, then decide whether to go in.