Oil negotiations between the US and Iran have made progress, but oil prices haven't surged: why doesn't the market buy it?

According to logic, if there is consensus in US-Iran negotiations, the market should first trade on "easing expectations," and oil prices should at least react somewhat. But in reality, after the White House denied the draft text, oil prices didn't show exaggerated fluctuations, indicating that the market is becoming increasingly cautious about such news. Traders' current thinking is straightforward: negotiations are fine, but wait until they are implemented.

There is an even larger logic behind this: high interest rates are suppressing demand. In the past, the crude oil market was accustomed to treating geopolitical risks as the main theme, but now the macro environment doesn't support that. High interest rates make economic activity easier to cool down, and oil consumption will naturally be affected. So the market is starting to ask: even if Middle East tensions ease, if demand softens first, how much can oil prices still rise?

However, low inventories prevent oil prices from being too pessimistic. Low inventories mean the market has very little tolerance for supply disruptions; even localized risks can cause prices to rebound quickly. So current oil prices are like a balloon being pulled from two sides at once: one hand is high interest rates pulling down; the other is low inventories pushing up. In the short term, the most likely trend isn't a one-way move but a range-bound oscillation. The real determinant of direction isn't any single piece of news, but whether subsequent data can prove that demand is truly cooling down. #美伊谈判博弈