The biggest concern in the oil market now isn't war, but "chronic consumption suppression caused by high interest rates"

Many people look at crude oil, and their first reaction is still geopolitical conflicts, straits blockades, supply disruptions. But in this round of market movements, the focus has quietly shifted. WTI fell below $90, Brent also declined, and after the White House denied the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, oil prices didn't rebound significantly, indicating traders are paying more attention to how high interest rates are suppressing demand.

This is actually a very realistic shift. War risks can cause oil prices to spike instantly, but high interest rates gradually dull demand. They won't blow the market apart like an explosion, but will act like an invisible hand, slowly pushing down consumption, logistics, and manufacturing oil consumption. Once the market starts to believe that "demand is not strong enough," oil prices will find it hard to surge as they did before on geopolitical news.

Of course, low inventories still underpin oil prices. Low inventories mean the market doesn't have much surplus, and any supply disruptions can quickly amplify price volatility. So in the short term, oil prices are unlikely to plummet unilaterally, more like "dip, stabilize, then watch the data." If macroeconomic data continues to weaken, oil prices may remain under pressure; but as long as inventories stay tight, prices will find it hard to break below key support levels. The oil market isn't choosing a direction right now; it's waiting to see who will crack first. #WTI原油失守90美元