Oil prices face short-term pressure, but don't rush to call a collapse: inventories are still supporting the floor

WTI drops below $90, and Brent also weakens, many people's first reaction is: are oil prices about to start a new downward cycle? But the market's real answer might not be that simple. After the White House denied reaching a memorandum of understanding with Iran, oil prices were not reignited by geopolitical risks, indicating traders are now paying more attention to the dampening effect of high interest rates on demand.

What does this mean? It means the oil market is now more like trading "demand slowdown" rather than "supply disruption." High interest rates will cool economic activity, and crude oil consumption will naturally be affected. But at the same time, low inventories prevent oil prices from sliding all the way down. When inventories are low, the market is especially sensitive to any supply disruptions, so there is always an invisible support below the price.

Therefore, in the short term, oil prices are more likely to fluctuate weakly rather than collapse unilaterally. As long as macro demand remains under pressure, oil prices will repeatedly test downward space; but as long as inventories remain tight, prices will be pulled back at key levels. To put it simply, the oil market is not currently trending but balancing on a tightrope. Whoever loses balance first will be the first to be corrected by the market. #WTI原油失守90美元