Oil prices weren't driven higher by US-Iran news, indicating that the market has already learned to "wait for the data" first.

In the past, the oil market was easily influenced by geopolitical news, especially keywords involving the US-Iran relationship or the Strait of Hormuz, with prices often reacting first and thinking later. But this time is different. After the White House denied the draft, the market didn't overreact to the risk; instead, it shifted focus to how high interest rates suppress demand. This shows that traders are increasingly unwilling to make decisions based solely on news.

The reason isn't complicated. While geopolitical risks are stimulating, they are often short-term; the impact of high interest rates on demand is more persistent. Higher financing costs for companies slow down consumption and investment, naturally dragging down oil demand. The market is now more concerned about this "gradual weakening" process rather than a sudden news event. Because the former is harder to reverse, while the latter is often just emotional volatility.

However, low inventories remain the trump card for oil prices. Low inventories mean the market has little room to absorb unexpected shocks, so prices won't easily lose support. In the short term, oil prices may continue to be pressured, but the downside isn't necessarily large. What truly determines the future direction is not a single negotiation news, but whether macro demand will continue to weaken. If demand truly softens, oil prices will move downward more convincingly; if not, the market will quickly revert to the old script of "low inventories supporting prices."#WTI原油失守90美元