Review of Woodie's legendary moves on Circle

Original Title: "Woodie's Supreme Operations on Circle"
Original Author: Dayu, Crypto KOL

Original Author: Rhythm BlockBeats

Original Source:

Repost: Mars Finance

Circle is the stock I pay the most attention to, and I’ve always believed that only players who cross boundaries can better understand this company. I’ve written a lot about it, and personally, I think the most impressive investor is Woodie. Her operations on this asset are textbook-level: from "breaking open the opening," to "selling at high levels," to "buying back at low levels," she has made billions of dollars in profit through these moves.

Interestingly, she is not a swing trader; she is the type who looks at the long-term narrative and holds for the very long term, ignoring fluctuations. But her operations on this asset make me feel she simply has a very clear grasp of short-term volatility—so clear that even a long-term holder would need to make simple trades.

As QNT is about to go public, it’s valuable to review Woodie’s operations on Circle.

1. Breaking Open the Opening: Why Can a New Stock Double Before Opening

This time, Circle’s IPO issued 34 million shares publicly, priced at $31, raising about $1.1 billion. The underwriting syndicate (led by JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs) initially set the range at $24 to $26, later raised it to $27 to $28, and finally settled at $31—an upward price adjustment signals strong demand.

According to Bloomberg, this issuance was oversubscribed by about 25 times; BlackRock also plans to buy 10% of the issuance.

What truly determined the jump at open was the circulating supply.

Circle’s total shares at listing were about 223 million, but only 34 million shares (about 15% of total shares) were actually available for trading in the market. The remaining 85%, held by founders, early investors, and employees, was locked up for a lock-up period, preventing them from selling in the short term.

The supply was stuck at just 34 million shares, while demand was stacked 25 times oversubscribed. These two factors collided, causing the price to jump to find a balance. As a result, Circle opened at $69 (123% above the IPO price), briefly touched $103.75 (235% higher), and closed at $83.23 (168% higher).

This 168% first-day gain was the highest in a multi-decade, billion-dollar-level U.S. stock IPO.

This is the physical structure of "breaking open the opening": hot sectors, small float, and high leverage oversubscription—when combined, a sharp gap-up at open is inevitable. It has nothing to do with whether the company is worth this price; it’s purely because the "money wanting to buy" far exceeds the "tickets available to sell" in the short term.

But the lock-up isn’t forever. Once that 85% is released, the extreme supply-demand imbalance at open will gradually be filled, as evidenced by Circle’s subsequent plunge.

2. Woodie’s Three Steps: Subscribing, Selling, Buying Back

Woodie’s confidence in Circle wasn’t a judgment made only on the day of listing. ARK’s long-term bets on crypto assets and digital financial infrastructure, along with her public statements favoring stablecoins, show she was involved before the IPO.

1. Before Listing: Acquiring Core Shares at the IPO Price

In Circle’s prospectus, ARK expressed its intention to subscribe, planning to buy up to $150 million worth of shares. Ultimately, it obtained about 4.49 million shares, distributed across ARKK, ARKW, and ARKF funds. At $31 per share, the cost was about $139 million—roughly hitting her subscription cap.

To support Circle, ARK sold some other crypto holdings on the day of listing: Coinbase (COIN) about $39 million, Robinhood (HOOD) about $18.5 million, Block (XYZ) about $10.4 million. She didn’t increase her crypto exposure but shifted her positions from other crypto assets to Circle.

At the close of the first day at $83.23, ARK’s 4.49 million shares were worth about $373 million, so media reported "ARK bought $373 million worth of Circle." But that $373 million was the market value at close, not her cash outlay. Her actual cost was the IPO price of about $139 million. The primary market tickets hadn’t even been available to ordinary investors yet; her paper gains had already doubled. This profit was the exclusive benefit of the IPO allocation in "breaking open the opening."

For retail investors, the first visible price in the secondary market was $69, while ARK’s cost was close to $31.

2. Policy-Driven Selling

Circle’s stock price soared after listing, driven by policy.

On June 17, 2025, the U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act (Stablecoin Act) with a vote of 68 to 30, establishing a regulatory framework for USD-backed stablecoins at the federal level for the first time. When news broke, Circle’s stock jumped 33.8% in a single day, closing at $199.59; continued rising on June 20; and on June 23, it hit an intraday high of $298.99, its highest to date, with a market cap of about $66 billion. At that time, USDC’s total circulation was about $61.7 billion, meaning the company’s equity was once worth more than all the stablecoins it issued combined.

During this policy rally, Woodie began systematically reducing her holdings.

Her first sale was on June 16, about 340k shares at a closing price of $151.06. She sold additional portions on June 17, 20, and 23—about 300k, 610k, and 420k shares respectively. Over four transactions, she sold roughly 1.7 million shares, cashing out about $352 million, at an average price of around $210. Her cost basis was close to the IPO price of $31, so the profit was substantial.

Why did she choose this timing? There are two reasons.

One is discipline. ARK has a mechanical rule: if a single stock’s weight in a fund approaches or exceeds 10%, it triggers rebalancing. Circle’s rapid rise pushed its weight up passively, forcing her to reduce.

The other is supply. The locked 85% will eventually be unlocked. In fact, Circle set an early unlock clause: if the stock price stays 15% above the IPO price for five consecutive trading days, the lock is triggered. On August 13, JPMorgan released 11.5 million shares; on August 15, Circle issued an additional 10 million shares at $130, with 8 million from existing shareholders reducing their holdings.

While policy pushed the price skyward, the supply gates were opening one after another. Smart money clearly understood this. Woodie didn’t sell at the peak; her first two sales were near $150, and her last at around $263, while the stock hit a high of nearly $299 intraday. None of these sales were at the absolute top, but she was cashing out in stages at different rising points—an approach that can be repeated. Her subsequent buybacks followed similar logic.

3. Buying Back During Deep Dips

After peaking on June 23, Circle entered a multi-month decline.

The downward forces included:

· A valuation disconnected from fundamentals, with a $66 billion market cap;

· Continuous unlocking of shares;

· Market expectations of Fed rate cuts, which hurt Circle’s interest income, heavily reliant on reserves.

Every rise was good news; every fall was bad news.

On November 12, Circle announced its Q3 earnings: net profit of $214 million, tripling the same period last year; EPS of $0.64, far exceeding the market’s $0.20 estimate. The numbers looked great, but the stock fell 12% that day, closing at $86.30. The reasons were threefold:

· The lock-up period was expiring two days later (November 14), allowing insiders to sell again;

· The company raised expense guidance;

· Concerns about declining interest income due to rate cuts.

Good earnings turned into "all the good news was priced in."

On that day, Woodie re-entered. She bought about 350k shares for roughly $340k; the next day, she bought another 540k shares for about $300k—averaging between $82 and $86. This was her first buyback of Circle since reducing her position in June.

She continued to buy during the decline. In March 2026, during another sharp drop, she bought about $16.3 million worth near $100. The stock bottomed at $49.90, an 83% retracement from the high.

By the end of Q1 2026, according to 13F filings, ARK’s Circle holdings had returned to about 4.5 million shares—roughly the same size as on the first day of listing. The position she sold above $200 was bought back between $80 and $130. Today, CRCL is ARKK’s sixth-largest holding, with ARKK alone holding about $300 million.

Her buyback process was also imperfect. The earliest purchases were above $80, but the stock later dipped to $50—these early buys were still underwater. But she continued to average down, trusting her long-term view: that Circle’s business model remains promising.

3. What Can Be Truly Learned

In review, besides the advantage of "low cost," three key points stand out:

First, having an independent judgment on Circle’s ultimate value. This judgment precedes trading. She dares to buy heavily near the IPO price and to start buying back at over $80 because she believes stablecoins are the foundational infrastructure of digital dollars, with USDC being a core component. Without this conviction, the so-called "buying high and buying low" would just be "chasing the top and bottom."

Second, segmenting trades, not gambling on tops or bottoms. Selling in stages during rises, buying in stages during declines. She reduced her position in four trades in June at an average of about $210; during the decline, she bought in multiple stages from over $80 down to around $50, then added again at $100 and $130. No single trade is optimal, but combined, it forms a clean "high reduction, low addition" pattern. This approach doesn’t require predicting peaks or bottoms—only disciplined execution at extreme prices.

Third, position limits. The mechanical rule that forced her to reduce in June—"rebalance if a single stock exceeds 10% of the fund"—helped her lock in profits when Circle surged to $299, and after the decline, left her with cash and room to re-enter.

Position discipline is what most retail investors lack.

For most, "breaking open the opening" is the riskiest move. That initial jump is a bonus for those who got allocations before listing; for ordinary investors, the easiest to catch is the peak caused by supply-demand imbalance. From $299 down to $50, an 83% retracement, those who chased above $200 are likely still underwater today. Participating in Circle, Woodie’s success relies on her judgment of the endgame, the IPO price, independent analysis, and discipline. Lacking any of these, the outcome could be entirely different.