Lately, discussions about options have been heating up again, and I realize many people are actually betting on "time being on my side." But honestly, the time value mostly works against the buyer: as you keep buying, even if the underlying asset stays still, it can wear you out; while the seller is more like collecting an "anxiety tax," as long as the volatility isn't as big or as fast as you expect, they slowly earn the premium. Of course, when a big market move happens, the seller can also be pierced by a needle; I don't claim to understand the whole picture.

These days, pledge unlocking and unlock calendar updates are flooding the feeds; everyone is watching for selling pressure, but many trades are actually "worried they won't make it in time." Buyers are even worse off—time passes, and the anxiety keeps accelerating the bloodletting.

There’s just too much information, which is pretty annoying. My current filtering method is pretty crude: first, look at the supply change path (how unlocking proceeds, who holds it), then see if the market has already priced in volatility expectations; for projects that can't explain these two points, even if the community is hot, I’m too lazy to follow. That’s it for now.