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5.31 Bitcoin Auntie Thoughts
Today is the last trading day of May, and the market continues to fluctuate within a narrow range at low levels, with volatility at a nine-month low. The recent small rebound is purely a technical correction after being oversold, with no significant increase in trading volume, and the bearish dominant pattern remains unchanged.
$BTC Bitcoin: Around 742, with a band of 746, watch 730-725
$ETH Auntie: Around 2040, with a band of 2060, watch 2000-1960
End-of-month rebalancing effect: Today is the last trading day of May, and some funds may rebalance at month-end, increasing market volatility.
ETF capital outflows: Bitcoin ETF saw outflows of over $2.43 billion in May, marking the worst monthly performance this year; Auntie ETF also saw outflows of $402 million during the same period.
Federal Reserve hawkish expectations: The market prices in about a 70% chance of a rate hike by the Fed in December, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reaching 5.2%, and the high-interest-rate environment continues to suppress risk assets.
Leverage liquidation risk: If Bitcoin drops below 70,000, approximately $2 billion in long positions will face liquidation risk; if Auntie drops below 1900, about $500 million in long positions will be liquidated.