#TradFi交易分享挑战 Next week's gold market outlook:

#TradFi交易分享挑战 Next week's gold market outlook:
　　The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released its trader positioning report for the week ending May 26 on Friday (May 29), revealing the latest trends of various speculative funds in major financial and commodity markets. Overall, there is a clear divergence among different asset classes: in the treasury futures market, speculators generally reduced their previous short positions, with medium- and short-term government bonds favored; while in precious metals, energy, and agricultural products, long and short adjustments vary, reflecting complex market expectations on economic prospects, inflation, and monetary policy paths.
　　Next week, the market will focus on the U.S. May non-farm payrolls data on June 5, which is a key event this month. After consecutive better-than-expected non-farm reports, the market expects a slowdown in new jobs and a slight rise in the unemployment rate. The data will directly influence the Fed's rate cut expectations and thus dominate the direction of the dollar and gold.
　　This week (May 25-29), gold experienced a sharp V-shaped reversal, with intense bullish and bearish battles. After a slight rise at the start of the week, prices declined for two consecutive days on Tuesday and Wednesday, reaching a two-week low of 4366 on Thursday, then rebounding strongly by over $150 in a single day, and continuing the rally on Friday to stabilize above the 4500 level, with a high of 4595. The weekly range exceeded $230, ending the previous downward trend and highlighting bullish resilience. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields remained high, and tensions in the Middle East boosted safe-haven demand, becoming the core driver of the gold price reversal.
　　Looking at the current chart, on the monthly level: after three consecutive downward months, the large bearish candle indicates a clear weak trend. Gold prices are trading below the medium- and long-term moving averages, with MACD bearish momentum continuing. May closed without breaking above key moving average resistance, and the larger downward trend remains unchanged. Each rebound is a correction, with upside space firmly suppressed, maintaining a medium- to long-term sideways-down pattern. On the weekly level: the weekly K-line continues to face downward pressure, with prices trading below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Short-term moving averages are bearish crossovers, with very weak rebound strength. The 4600 resistance level is strong, and the weekly bearish structure is intact, with no signs of a reversal. The medium-term remains bearish. On the daily level: short-term rebounds are also under significant pressure, with prices hitting the middle Bollinger Band and then falling back. Short-term bullish momentum is still insufficient, and rebound gains are limited. Next week’s key non-farm payroll data, combined with cooling Fed rate cut expectations, will keep the dollar strong and further suppress gold prices.
　　Resistance levels: First resistance at 4580, which is the middle band of the daily Bollinger Bands and also the weekly rebound high; gold is likely to face resistance and pull back here. Strong resistance at 4600, a key weekly pressure level; bulls are unable to break through in one go, and rebounds to this level are opportunities for shorting.
　　Support levels: Short-term support at 4480-4500, recent low levels where minor pullbacks may stabilize temporarily; key strong support at 4370, which marks the boundary between medium- and long-term bull and bear. If broken effectively, the bearish trend will open up further downside space.
　　Next week’s opening short-term strategy: consider shorting around 4565, with a stop at 4580, and targeting the 4510-4500 zone for a potential long position reversal.
　
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice!$XAUUSD