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Weekly Gold Price Trend Analysis

1. Market Trend

This week, the gold market delivered a “deep V reversal.” COMEX gold futures rebounded strongly from a low of $4,499 per ounce at the start of the week to close at $4,560.50 on Friday, for a total weekly gain of 1.37%, ending the prior three-week streak of falling prices. After price action touched $4,492 on Thursday—its lowest level in nearly two months—gold surged more than 1.5% in a single day on Friday, printing a weekly candlestick with a long lower shadow. This signals that bearish momentum has temporarily exhausted and that bullish forces have taken over market sentiment again.

‌Early-Week Pressure: On May 26, influenced by remarks from the newly appointed Fed chair Vosch—“balance sheet reduction as a priority, and cooling expectations for rate cuts”—the US dollar index stabilized and rebounded. Gold came under pressure and dipped; COMEX gold at one point fell to $4,492 per ounce, hitting a new low since April 2026.

‌Thursday Bottoming and Reversal: Around $4,490, the market encountered strong buying interest. COMEX position data showed that speculative net long positions increased by 2,544 contracts over the week. At the same time, institutional funds took the opportunity to position themselves. Although the US-Iran negotiations did not reach an agreement, the signal of a “temporary pause in military actions” was released, and safe-haven demand saw a partial recovery.

‌Friday Strong Recovery: On Friday, gold prices climbed with increased volume, breaking through the key resistance level at $4,540. The market closed above $4,560, with the daily MACD green histogram shrinking to near the zero line and red bars beginning to appear. The technical setup completed confirmation of a “bear to bull rotation” signal.

2. Technical Indicator Analysis: Momentum turns from negative to positive; the trend is not yet established, but the direction is clear

‌RSI (14 days): RSI rose from 38.2 at the beginning of the week to 57.6 on Friday. It moved out of the oversold zone and entered a neutral-to-slightly bullish range. It did not enter overbought territory (>70), indicating the rally still has continuity and there is no risk of short-term overheating.

‌MACD: DIFF and DEA remained stuck together below the zero line. The histogram turned from negative to positive. The momentum histogram narrowed from -8.2 to +2.1. Bullish momentum first took the lead, which is the most core technical turning signal of the week.

‌Bollinger Bands: Price strongly rebounded from the lower band ($4,460) back to the middle band ($4,520). The channel width narrowed to the lowest level in nearly three weeks, suggesting that after volatility compression, a directional breakout is likely imminent. A break above $4,580 would open up upside room.

3. Key Support and Resistance Levels: The bull-bear watershed anchored by institutional consensus

‌Support Levels:

‌First Support: $4,500–$4,510 — this week’s low and a psychological threshold, representing the last line of defense for bulls.

‌Second Support: $4,460–$4,480 — the 200-day moving average and the dense area of the April 2026 platform; this is the core region of institutional medium- to long-term dip-buying demand.

‌Strong Support: $4,420–$4,440 — the March 2026 low and support from the long-term trendline; a breakdown would trigger a systemic bearish trend.

‌Resistance Levels:

‌First Resistance: $4,580–$4,600 — the high on May 20 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. A breakout would confirm the trend reversal.

‌Second Resistance: $4,650–$4,670 — the upper boundary of the early-May 2026 consolidation range, serving as a short-term target.

‌Long-Term Resistance: $4,700–$4,750 — corresponds to an extreme scenario in which Fed rate-cut expectations reignite and geopolitical risks comprehensively escalate.

4. Outlook for the Next Stage: Closely monitor the US-Iran negotiation process

‌Fed Policy Expectations Cool Down: Vosch is hawkish. The market has already begun to price in “rate hikes in 2026,” which exerts near-term downward pressure on gold prices.

‌Global Central Bank Gold Buying Continues: Data from the World Gold Council shows that in 2026 Q1, global central banks’ net gold purchases reached 320 tons. China, Poland, and India continued increasing their holdings, and the de-dollarization trend is irreversible.

‌Geopolitical Risks Have Not Disappeared: The US-Iran negotiations have not yet been finalized, the conflict has not been resolved, oil prices remain high, and inflation has not eased. Any sudden disruptive event could weigh on gold prices. Going forward, it is necessary to closely monitor the US-Iran negotiation process and whether face-to-face talks on June 5 will be held as scheduled.

5. Trading Recommendations:

Short Term (1–2 weeks):

‌Establish Short Positions: Since there has not been a fundamental reversal in the market trend, the main strategy should be to short at higher levels.

‌If price pulls back to the $4,500–$4,510 range: you may take short-term long positions, with a stop-loss set below $4,480.

‌If price rallies toward $4,580: set up short positions, with a stop-loss placed above $4,650. $TSM