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Based on Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationship, Order Flow, and Price Action Analysis of BTC Short-term Trends (Strategy Recommendations)
$BTC Comprehensive Judgment
Dow Theory indicates the main trend is downward but with significantly diminishing downside momentum, with the short-term trend shifting to a slow rebound, key levels are at 74,000–74,500 (upper) and 73,100 (lower).
Chan Theory shows that the downward strokes remain strong, but the upward strokes have increased from +467, +348 to +1,772, +1,638, with signs of the bottom pattern rising (72,384 → 73,118), currently the upward strokes have not yet ended.
Wave Theory suggests that the five-wave decline has completed, and the current phase is a rebound in wave C of the A-B-C correction wave, with wave C’s strength (+1,638) reaching 89.1% of wave A, nearly equal length.
Volume-Price Relationship shows characteristics of a shrinking rebound on May 30 (1.15B), with selling pressure basically exhausted but buying interest not yet concentrated.
Order Flow indicates the POC is at 73,367, with the price already above the POC, and Delta MA12 has risen above zero.
Price Action shows a "Hammer" + "Three Red Soldiers" + "Volume Decrease and Pullback" three bullish patterns, indicating a short-term bias to the upside.
Short-term Strategy Recommendations:
Bullish Scenario: If the price shows volume contraction and stabilization near 73,100–73,300 + bottom pattern rising + Delta turns positive, consider a small long position, targeting 74,000 → 74,500 → 75,000, with a stop loss at 72,800.
Bearish Scenario: If the rebound reaches near 74,200–74,500 with a top pattern and accompanied by increased volume and decline, confirming wave C’s rebound failure, consider shorting, targeting 73,000 → 72,384, with a stop loss at 74,800.
Current State: 73,814 is above the POC, indicating a short-term bias to the upside, but resistance above 74,000 remains heavy. It is recommended to wait for volume breakout above 74,200 for confirmation before adding to long positions, or wait for a pullback to around 73,300 to stabilize before considering entry. In the 73,300–74,000 range, a light position for observation is advised.