These past two days I’ve been at it again with the whole address profiling setup—labels, clustering, and fund-flow layers stacked on top of each other look pretty “scientific,” but if we’re being honest, I’d only trust it about 60–70%. The same pot of money routed through a few different intermediaries and pushed through an aggregator, and the profile immediately turns into “another person.” What I care about more right now is this: when OI and funding rates tug back and forth, does the same batch of addresses change faces in sync? If it doesn’t, I’ll treat it as real; if it changes too fast, I’ll treat it as noise.

Lately everyone has been comparing RWA, U.S. Treasury yields, and on-chain yield products together. The more I look, the more I feel we shouldn’t put too much faith in the word “stability.” The little bit of yield on-chain is often built up from sentiment plus leverage, and the drawdowns come just as quickly.

What I fear most isn’t losing money—it’s that even though I’ve got alarms and discipline, my hand still can’t help adding to my position, and then afterward I go looking for reasons for myself… Forget it. Tonight I’ll tighten the reminder to reduce positions even more.