In June's intensive agenda, the potential regulatory policies in the United States are viewed as positive expectations, while the global central bank tightening cycle and market structure challenges are the main sources of negative impact.

📈 Macro Perspective: Two Key Variables

· Global tightening wave led by central banks: In June, major global central banks (Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England) will hold meetings. The market generally expects a hawkish stance, and the ongoing tightening of global liquidity environment poses significant bearish risks to risk assets.
· Uncertainty in Middle East situation: The G7 finance ministers' meeting is highly focused on the risk of inflation triggered by rising oil prices, which continues to disturb market trends.

⚖️ Regulation and Legislation: Impact Analysis

Key points: US establishing regulatory framework, EU large-scale reshuffle

· 📈 Major positive (expected):
· US CLARITY Act: Building a clear federal regulatory framework, benefiting compliant platforms like Coinbase.
· SEC tokenization exemption: Lowering issuance thresholds for tokenized securities, promoting the development of RWA and other DeFi sectors.
· 📉 Noticeable negative/shuffle:
· Full implementation of EU MiCA: About 75% of service providers (around 2,250) face delisting, USDT circulation restricted.
· Stricter regulation in China: Complete ban on RWA tokenization and financial services related to virtual currencies.

📉 Macro Economy and Central Bank Policies: Impact Analysis

Key points: Global central bank tightening, funds drained by historic IPOs

· 📈 Potential short-term positive:
· Low-probability scenario of “less hawkish than expected” could lead to a brief rebound.
· 📉 Clear negative:
· Fed hawkish signals: Rates remain unchanged but statements continue to lean hawkish.
· Synchronized rate hikes by global central banks: The European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England all have significantly increased probability of rate hikes, intensifying global liquidity tightening.
· Economic data heightening concerns: Inflation may rebound, stagflation risk increases.
· Market “bloodletting” effect: SpaceX's massive IPO pulling large amounts of funds from the market.

📊 Market Structure and Liquidity: Impact Analysis

Key points: A tale of two extremes, coexistence of compliance narratives and short-term bearishness

· 📈 Potential positive:
· Compliance dividend release: Currencies like USDC that have obtained EU compliance licenses will gain significant competitive advantages.
· Capital outflow opportunities: Due to penalties on traditional brokerages, compliant crypto exchanges may see influxes of funds.
· 📉 Noticeable negative:
· Major test for centralized exchanges: Facing dual pressures of user loss and business competition.
· World Cup “bloodletting effect”: Historical data shows that during tournaments, market trading volume and volatility tend to decline.
· Pre-priced expectations: Markets have already priced in policy benefits; the enactment of legislation may lead to a “sell the news” correction once the benefits are realized.