Just finished a late-night snack and scrolled through the blockchain—then I saw that yet again, someone used the curve of stablecoin supply to benchmark ETF net inflows, and concluded, “Money is coming in”… I’m a bit uneasy about this whole rhythm of treating correlation as causation. A big increase in stablecoins may just as easily be market making, moving liquidity across exchanges for arbitrage, or even pre-minting over the counter to wait for opportunities—it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s about to be dumped straight into spot.

As for ETFs, it’s more like a “pipeline”: whether money actually flows in, and whether—after it comes in—it will buy risk assets, involves multiple layers of sentiment and risk controls. Anyway, my own approach is: I’d rather be a little slow—wait until I see real on-chain usage and signs of portfolio rebalancing before making any assumptions.

Quick rant, too: this week, new L1/L2 projects are back to boosting TVL and offering incentives, and it’s not like veteran users saying “mine, extract, and then dump/sell” isn’t justified… At times like this, the faster the data climbs, the more I want to take another look at the sources. For now, that’s it.