If you're watching ZEC's 4-hour candlestick chart, you probably only have one feeling in your heart — it still has to fall.

In the past 24 hours, ZEC has fallen 3.6%, with the price reaching around $521, and now it has slipped further to $517.64, with a low touching $502.60. On the technical side, those moving averages are also clearly not optimistic: MA7 pressing at $528, MA25 at $550, and MA99 towering at $577, a classic bearish alignment. Although the MACD's DIF and DEA are close together, overall it remains below the zero line, showing no signs of a decent rebound.

But these technical indicators are just surface appearances. To truly understand why ZEC can't hold up, we need to go back to the source of this market movement — the mining machine manufacturers.

This rally, frankly, was created by mining machine manufacturers to sell their equipment. New miners need to be shipped out; how can the market not be hot? They boost the price, create hype, and those wanting to buy mining machines naturally get excited. Now that the machines that should be sold are nearly sold out and the profits are secured, what reason do the big players have to keep supporting the market?

Supporting the price costs money, and mining machine manufacturers are never in the business of charity. Once the machines are sold, their job is done, and the remaining market can play on its own. So what you're seeing now is this situation — prices gradually slipping down, retail investors still watching the news for a reversal, but whether it's whales increasing their holdings or clearer regulations, all seem somewhat pale in comparison at this stage.

The U.S. SEC's investigation into the Zcash Foundation ended without results, which is actually good news — institutional interest might slowly come in. Zebra node client 4.5.0 also fixed vulnerabilities and added mining-blocking features. There are also rumors of whales increasing their holdings and exchange balances decreasing, which all sound plausible.

But these positive signals are small compared to the inventory held by mining machine manufacturers.

The price repeatedly hits resistance levels, and capital outflows are also concentrated. The community is arguing fiercely — some see this as a golden pit, others think the decline has just begun. Despite the disagreements, the market won't lie — without increased capital inflow and without big players willing to support, the 4-hour candlestick can only keep searching for support downward.

What’s next? Honestly, until the profit-taking from this wave by mining machine sellers is fully digested, every rebound might only be a brief respite. If you ask me, my judgment is simple: it still has to fall. Once those trapped, unwilling to give up, or hoping to break even, get exhausted, the market might finally bottom out.