These days, I've seen many people treat the supply of stablecoins and ETF inflows and outflows as a "market signal," but honestly, correlation can sometimes be quite misleading... An increase in stablecoins might just mean people are holding some off-chain, or it could be for on-chain arbitrage or market making; ETF capital flows are also driven by sentiment and rhythm, and don't necessarily immediately translate into spot buying. Don’t jump to conclusions just because two lines move together—I’ve been fooled by this kind of chart before, chasing in and getting slippage taught me a lesson.

Instead, I care more about whether the depth has kept up, whether routing is starting to go around the long way, and whether the price difference for the same swap across different chains suddenly widens. The inflation + studio + coin price spiral in blockchain games is similar: surface data looks good, but once the underlying liquidity is pulled, it all falls apart. Anyway, I’m currently less interested in "grand narratives" and more focused on real-world testing... that’s all for now.