The United States bans reaching a "safe passage" agreement with Iran, and the short-term outlook for the Strait of Hormuz resuming navigation has cooled.

Deep Tide TechFlow News, May 30 — The U.S. Department of the Treasury and the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) recently issued new guidelines, clearly prohibiting U.S. citizens, businesses, and other U.S. entities from entering into any agreements with the Iranian government or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) that involve "security transit guarantees," even if such arrangements do not include any payment of fees, they are considered restricted activities.

According to the statement, Iran's newly established "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" plans to provide security services to ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and charge corresponding transit fees. The U.S. has listed this agency under sanctions and warned that any entities conducting business or cooperation with it may face sanctions risks.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury emphasized that seeking or accepting "security transit guarantees" provided by Iran, regardless of whether funds are involved, is not permitted. The U.S. government does not recognize any form of "paid protection" or similar arrangements.

On the market side, geopolitical risks continue to impact shipping expectations. According to prediction market Polymarket data, as of now, the market estimates an approximately 8% chance that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen before June 15, and about a 34% chance before the end of June.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important energy transportation routes, and its navigability remains closely watched by the international energy market, the shipping industry, and global investors.