If you’re staring at ZEC’s 4-hour candlestick chart, you probably only have one feeling in your heart — it still has to fall.

In the past 24 hours, ZEC has dropped 3.6%, with the price reaching around $521, and now it’s even slipped to $517.64, with a low touching $502.60. On the technical side, those moving averages are also clearly not optimistic: MA7 pressing at $528, MA25 at $550, and MA99 towering at $577 — a classic bearish alignment. Although the MACD’s DIF and DEA are stuck together, overall it’s still below the zero line, showing no signs of a decent rebound.

But these technical indicators are just surface appearances. To truly understand why ZEC can’t hold up, we need to go back to the source of this market movement — the mining machine vendors.

This rally, frankly, was created by the miners to sell their machines. New mining machines need to be shipped out; how can the market not be hot? They boost the price, create hype, and those wanting to buy mining equipment naturally get excited. Now that most of the machines that should be sold are sold, and the profits are secured, what reason do the big players have to keep supporting the market?

Supporting the price costs money, and mining machine vendors are never in the business of charity. Once the machines are sold, the task is done, and the remaining market can play on its own. That’s why you see the current situation — prices slowly slipping down, retail investors still watching the news for a reversal, but whether it’s whales increasing their holdings or clearer regulations, all seem a bit pale in comparison at this stage.

The US SEC’s investigation into the Zcash Foundation ended without results, which is actually good — institutional interest might gradually come in. Zebra node client 4.5.0 also fixed vulnerabilities and added mining-blocking features. There are also rumors that whales are increasing their holdings, and exchange balances are decreasing — all sound plausible.

But compared to the mining machine vendors’ inventory, these positives are just small potatoes.

The price repeatedly hits resistance levels, and capital outflows are concentrated. The community is arguing fiercely — some see this as a golden pit, others think it’s just the beginning of a decline. Despite the disagreements, the market doesn’t lie — without increased capital inflow and without big players willing to support, the 4-hour candlestick can only keep looking for support downward.

What’s next? Honestly, until the mining machine vendors’ profit-taking is fully digested, every rebound might just be a brief respite. If you ask me, my judgment is simple: it still has to fall. Once those trapped, unwilling to give up, hoping to break even investors are worn out, the market might finally bottom out.

Don’t rush to call a bottom now. Let the candlesticks keep flying for a while. $ZEC #StockTradingChallengeWinUpTo17000U