Will the Federal Reserve take action in June? Traders are already starting to get nervous in advance

The financial markets have an old problem: emotions run ahead of the news. Before the June interest rate decision, traders are already repeatedly chewing over the possibility of “another hike,” as if doing psychological preparation. Especially after Waller officially took office, the market’s bets on policy tightening have clearly heated up, as if the moment the Fed’s office door opens, hawkish sentiment will automatically spill out.

However, interest rate decisions have never been about “who’s tougher wins,” but about “who has more data to support their case.” If inflation remains sticky or the labor market is still overheated, then there’s a real possibility of a more hawkish stance in June; but if the latest data starts to cool down, the Fed might choose to observe first and decide whether to continue tightening later. The biggest mistake the market can make is to treat “possibility” as “certainty.”

Therefore, what to watch most in June is not just whether there will be a rate hike, but whether the Fed will send a clearer hawkish signal in its statement. Often, what truly impacts asset prices isn’t those 25 basis points, but the phrase in the chair’s speech: “We remain prepared to take necessary action.” Once that sentence is out, bonds, stocks, and the dollar all have to recalculate. #股票交易挑战最高赢17000U