The probability of another rate hike within the year approaching 70%, is the market too excited this time

Once the market starts betting on rate hikes, the atmosphere feels like the last ten minutes before an exam: everyone thinks they understand the questions, but in reality, no one dares to confidently claim they do. The nearly 70% chance of another rate hike this year sounds like "the hawkish trend is set," but one of the markets' best skills is pushing expectations to the extreme and then reversing at the critical moment.

The arrival of the Wosh era will indeed make the market more sensitive. Because a new chairman's appointment often means changes in policy communication style, priorities, and even statements about inflation tolerance. Traders will instinctively interpret this as "tighter, harder, and less lenient." But the Federal Reserve is not an emotional institution; it won't immediately take flight just because the market thinks it's hawkish.

The June decision is more likely to be a "signal battle" rather than a "action battle." In other words, the Fed may first test market reactions through wording, dot plots, and press conference statements, rather than directly shocking everyone with a radical rate hike. For investors, the most dangerous thing isn't the hike itself, but "thinking it won't happen, only to find the wording more aggressive than a rate increase." So, don't just focus on the outcome this time; every word in the process may be more valuable than the numbers. #Polymarket每日热点