Goldman Sachs's model has factored in psychological geography, giving 26% to Spain. It seems the bullfighter is favored by the data this time.

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MeNews
Goldman Sachs Modeling: Predicting Spain's World Cup Victory
ME News Report, May 30 (UTC+8), Goldman Sachs predicts that Spain has the highest chance of winning the 2026 World Cup at 26%, France 19%, and Argentina 14%. The model is based on nearly 20k matches, adjusted for attacking talent, recent form, psychological and geographical factors. (Source: Wall Street Insights)
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