Polymarket suddenly became popular! Betting is not on the protocol, but on the future of oil prices

Recently, as US-Iran negotiations heat up, the popularity of various prediction markets has clearly increased.
The reason is simple.
Traditional markets are guessing.
Prediction markets are pricing guesses.
Everyone wants to know:
Will the agreement be officially reached?
Will Iran's exports resume?
How much will oil prices fall?
These questions have become hot trading topics.
In a sense, prediction markets have become a global thermometer of sentiment.
As more and more funds bet on the agreement being reached.
The market has actually reflected some positive news in advance.
But the problem is.
Prediction markets predict probabilities.
What actually happens are the outcomes.
The two are not always consistent.
Therefore, whether bullish or bearish.
It is important to understand one principle:
The biggest risk now is not a wrong direction.
But overconfidence.
Because in this game of international politics.
Often, before the final move is made, no one knows who the real winner is.
And whether oil prices will go up or down next may be hidden in a key meeting in the coming weeks. #股票交易挑战最高赢17000U