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Is the bull market over this year? CryptoQuant CEO suggests Bitcoin bear market may last until early 2027

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju believes that Bitcoin’s current downtrend could extend into early 2027. His basis is CryptoQuant’s on-chain PnL Index Signal. This indicator shows that after the market enters a phase of concentrated profit-taking, investors’ overall profit and loss levels tend to weaken for about 18 months.

The indicator points to the downtrend still not being over

Ju stated on X that this trend change began in October 2025, and the current movement is similar to the long-cycle declines in 2014, 2018, and 2022. Based on historical patterns, the cyclical bottom may appear in early 2027.

He mentioned that a true reversal is not just about price rebounds but requires two on-chain signals to appear simultaneously: a rebound in unrealized profits and a decline in realized profits. This indicates selling pressure is easing, and buyers are regaining dominance. Currently, this combination has not yet appeared.

Bitcoin consolidates near $73k

The report notes that when Ju posted, Bitcoin’s trading price was close to $73k, about 30% below the 2025 high. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields remain high, risk assets are under pressure overall, and market risk aversion is rising.

CryptoQuant’s on-chain data also shows that inflows of funds into Bitcoin are still increasing, but market capitalization has not expanded accordingly. According to Ju’s framework, this divergence—funds entering while prices stagnate or fall—is a typical feature of a bear market.

CoinGlass data indicates that there are concentrated sell orders around $74.2k and $74.5k, forming short-term resistance zones.

ETFs and OTC demand are key focus areas moving forward

Ju believes that for a more sustained recovery, two demand-side variables should be closely monitored: first, whether spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows will resume increasing; second, whether institutional OTC trading activity can pick up again.

The report points out that in recent months, ETF net inflows have remained, but the pace has significantly slowed compared to the peak in early 2025. Institutional OTC demand has also slowed, weakening the impact of new funds on price increases.

The article also mentions that if the U.S. Clarity Act advances, it could improve sentiment among some institutions. However, Ju’s PnL model does not rely on policy timelines; his judgment mainly depends on the on-chain profit and loss cycle itself.