Oil prices' bears celebrate? Don't forget that Middle Eastern dramas are best at plot twists

After hearing the news that the US and Iran reached a memorandum of understanding, many crude oil bears were excited as if they had seen the exam answers in advance.
But the biggest characteristic of Middle Eastern dramas is:
There is always a next episode.
Today they reach a consensus in principle.
Tomorrow they add supplementary agreements.
The day after there are disputes.
The day after that, renegotiations.
Similar plots have been repeated over the past decades.
Therefore, although the market has begun to lower risk premiums, it has not completely let go of caution.
After all, the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most important energy passages in the world.
Any wind or grass movement can affect global energy prices.
The current core logic of the market is actually very simple.
Agreement implementation = increased supply.
Agreement failure = risk reverts.
The gap between these two scenarios can be more than $10 per barrel.
So, current oil prices are not pricing in reality.
They are pricing in probabilities.
Investors are not looking at oil wells every day, but at news.
They are not looking at inventories, but at diplomatic rhetoric.
For short-term traders, this means opportunities and risks coexist.
For long-term investors, the most important thing is still to patiently wait for the answer to be revealed. #WTI原油失守90美元