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Iran wants to de-mine, the U.S. wants to unfreeze assets? Can this "deal" be finalized?
Recent US-Iran negotiations are very much like a used car sales scene.
Iran says: "I’ve cleared the Strait of Hormuz."
The U.S. says: "Then I’ll consider granting you some sanctions relief."
Both sides seem to have shaken hands, but no one has signed yet.
The market’s main concern isn’t actually the content of the agreement, but its implementation.
After all, history in international negotiations shows us:
Signing an agreement is easy, implementing it is hard.
Especially when the agreement involves the unfreezing of billions of dollars in assets and the resumption of energy exports, every step can introduce variables.
If Iran resumes more oil exports, global supply pressure will increase.
Theoretically, this is bearish for oil prices.
But the problem is, currently global energy demand isn’t weak.
Asian consumption continues to grow, and European and American strategic reserves are not in an extremely loose state.
Therefore, even if the agreement is eventually implemented, oil prices may not plummet sharply.
A more likely scenario is high-level volatility.
In other words, the market has shifted from "worrying about supply disruptions" to "watching for increased supply."
And there is a huge expectation gap between these two.
In the next month, the most important thing to watch isn’t the text of the agreement, but who takes the first step.
Because in international politics, what’s truly valuable isn’t promises, but actions. #美伊谈判博弈