Is a big drop in oil prices coming? Don't celebrate too early; the real show is still ahead

Many people’s first reaction after seeing the news about the US-Iran agreement:
Oil prices are done for.
But things might not be that simple.
Because the market is never trading now, but the future.
If the agreement is officially implemented, Iran’s export capacity is indeed expected to recover.
But how much?
When will it recover?
Who will buy?
These questions have no answers.
It's like a restaurant announcing it will open soon.
But the chef hasn't arrived yet.
The menu hasn't been printed.
The tables and chairs haven't been moved in.
It's hard to immediately calculate the turnover.
Currently, the global oil market still has many supporting factors.
For example, some oil-producing countries are still continuing production cuts.
Demand in Asia remains growing.
The summer peak season for consumption is approaching.
These factors will limit the downside space for oil prices.
Therefore, the market is not currently trading “Iran increasing production.”
But rather trading “Iran possibly increasing production.”
One is reality.
The other is expectation.
The difference is huge.
From the flow of funds, some speculative capital has already begun to reduce long positions in crude oil.
But there is no sign of a full withdrawal.
This indicates that institutions are also waiting for more details.
The most critical points to watch in the future are:
Whether the US will truly lift sanctions exemptions.
Whether Iran will actually resume shipping.
If both move forward simultaneously, oil prices may face medium- to long-term pressure.
If either one gets stuck,
Risk premiums could quickly return.
So this game is far from over.
The market has only moved from episode one to episode two.
The real finale is still far away. #股票交易挑战最高赢17000U