Sudden handshake between Iran and the U.S.? Just as oil prices were about to take off, they were poured back down with a cold splash!

The international market in May feels like a suspense thriller, with everyone speculating whether the Strait of Hormuz will turn into a "global shipping jam site" one moment, and the next, reports emerge that U.S. and Iranian negotiators have already reached an understanding on a memorandum of understanding.
Once the news broke, oil bulls immediately performed the "disappearing smile trick."
The draft agreement shows that Iran will clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days to restore commercial passage; the U.S. is considering gradually lifting maritime sanctions and discussing sanctions exemptions and asset freezes. #美伊谈判博弈
Simply put:
Iran says, "I'll open the sea route for you."
The U.S. says, "I'll loosen your wallet a bit."
The market asks, "Does that mean oil prices should fall?"
So, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices are under pressure.
But here’s the problem.
The White House then stated: The agreement text leaked to the media is inaccurate.
What does this mean?
It means that although both sides are sitting at the same table for talks, they haven't agreed on who will foot the bill yet.
Currently, the biggest disagreement in the market is:
The U.S. wants to limit Iran’s nuclear capabilities;
Iran wants to gain more economic benefits.
Both sides want to win, but neither wants to make the first concession.
Therefore, short-term oil prices may continue to fluctuate.
If the agreement is finally implemented, the world could see an additional hundreds of thousands of barrels of Iranian oil supply daily.
If talks break down, the risk premium for Hormuz will reappear.
So, current oil prices are like sitting in the middle of a seesaw.
To the left is peace.
To the right is conflict.
And investors are trembling underneath.
For Polymarket players, the next two weeks could be more exciting than the past two months.
Because what determines the direction of oil prices may not be inventory data, but a diplomatic phrase.