I’ve been lurking in the group for a long time, but I just can’t help saying this: the “on-chain data” in your screenshots may not necessarily look like the state “right now” on-chain… Many people take it for granted that on-chain = real-time truth, but in reality there are several layers in between: nodes, RPC, and indexers. Sometimes the node that the RPC connects to is already a few blocks behind; then the indexer waits in line to sync and occasionally reorganizes as well. The transfers, holdings, or even a certain contract event you see might already be “late.”

Recently, it’s not uncommon to see people hard-link and interpret ETF fund flows, U.S. stock risk appetite, and the ups and downs of the crypto market—I can’t say I’m not frustrated: if the on-chain side again tries to align with the macro rhythm using delayed data, it’s even easier to over-imagine. Anyway, my habit now is: before key trades, switch between a few different RPCs to cross-check. If I really want to be meticulous, I either pull the data from a node myself, or at least look at the confirmation count on the original block explorer… If it’s slow, then it’s slow—don’t let things that “look like they’re very on-chain” push you to rush. Keep your assets in cold storage for now.