If you’re staring at ZEC’s 4-hour candlestick chart, you probably only have one feeling in your heart — it still has to fall.

In the past 24 hours, ZEC has dropped 3.6%, with the price reaching around $521, and now it’s even slipped to $517.64, with a low touching $502.60. On the technical side, those moving averages are also clearly not optimistic: MA7 pressing at $528, MA25 at $550, and MA99 towering at $577 — a classic bearish alignment. Although the MACD’s DIF and DEA are stuck together, overall it’s still below the zero line, showing no signs of a decent rebound.

But these technical indicators are just surface appearances. To truly understand why ZEC can’t hold up, we need to go back to the source of this market movement — the mining machine sellers.

This rally, frankly, was created by the miners to sell their machines. New mining machines need to be shipped out; how can the market be hot without enthusiasm? They boost the price, create hype, and those wanting to buy mining equipment naturally get excited. Now that most of the machines that should be sold are sold, and the profits are secured, what reason do the big players have to keep supporting the market?

Supporting the price costs money, and mining machine sellers’ logic has never been about charity. Once the machines are sold and the task is done, the remaining market can play on its own. That’s why you see the current situation — prices slowly slipping down, retail investors still watching the news for a reversal, but whether it’s whales increasing holdings or clearer regulations, both seem somewhat pale at this stage.

The SEC’s investigation into the Zcash Foundation ended without results, which is actually good — institutional interest might gradually come in. Zebra node client 4.5.0 also fixed vulnerabilities and added mining-blocking features. There are also rumors of whales increasing holdings and exchange balances decreasing — all sound plausible.

But compared to the mining machine stock in the hands of sellers, these positives are just small potatoes.

The price repeatedly hits resistance levels, and capital outflows are also concentrated. The community is arguing fiercely — some see this as a golden pit, others think the decline has just begun. The disagreements are there, but the market doesn’t lie — without increased capital inflows and without big players willing to support, the 4-hour candlestick can only keep searching for support downward.

What’s next? Honestly, until the miners’ profit-taking wave is fully digested, every rebound might just be a brief respite. If you ask me, my judgment is simple: it still has to fall. Once those trapped, unwilling to give up, hoping to break even investors get exhausted, the market might finally bottom out.

Don’t rush to call a bottom now. Let the candlesticks keep flying for a while. $ZEC ‌#股票交易挑战最高赢17000U