24 billion vs 57 trillion, the order of magnitude is way off, but the narrative flexibility of the prediction market is absent in 0DTE — political events can generate how many memes, that’s the real long-term variable

Barclays analysts say prediction markets are threatening other speculative tools and even becoming fierce competitors to leveraged ETPs. Since the 2024 election, trading activity on prediction platforms has been active; in April, Kalshi and Polymarket’s combined nominal trading volume exceeded $24 billion, a significant increase from a year earlier. The boom is driven by viral spread among younger generations, with nearly one-third of Generation Z and Millennials participating in—or considering participating in—prediction markets and sports betting. But currently, prediction markets still find it difficult to surpass flagship retail products like 0DTE; the S&P 0DTE trading amount reached $57 trillion in March.