#TradFi交易分享挑战 What recent news events are affecting the trends of gold and crude oil? How should we analyze the bullish or bearish outlook for gold in the near future?

#TradFi交易分享挑战 What recent news events have impacted the trends of gold and crude oil? How should the outlook for gold's bullish and bearish movements be assessed?

On Friday, international spot gold maintained a low rebound trend, with the price dipping to a low of $4,489 per ounce during the day before oscillating higher, reaching a high of $4,595.26 per ounce, and finally closing at $4,539.93 per ounce, showing an overall pattern of oversold correction and oscillation leaning stronger. Overall, short-term spot gold is affected by falling oil prices, while medium-term depends on the evolution of inflation and interest rate expectations. The high-interest-rate environment continues to weigh on non-yield assets, but the buffering effect of falling energy prices cannot be ignored. The global markets showed clear consolidation characteristics in May, with investors weighing multiple variables. As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold’s positioning in the current environment requires a dynamic assessment based on macroeconomic data.

Last night, several key U.S. data releases simultaneously sent pressure signals: core PCE rose to 3.3%, indicating persistent inflation; GDP was revised down to 1.6%, reflecting economic slowdown; initial jobless claims slightly increased, also showing the job market beginning to cool. The combination of these three signals has raised concerns about stagflation risk, which often provides support for gold. On the market, gold prices once fell to a two-month low, then quickly rebounded slightly, recovering the $4,500 level from around $4,366, with the highest approaching $4,600. The main reason for the rebound was market reports suggesting the U.S. and Iran might reach a 60-day memorandum, but the White House and Vice President Vance denied this, only expressing optimism about peace prospects. Therefore, in the short term, gold’s trend mainly depends on news; if the agreement is confirmed, safe-haven sentiment may weaken, but uncertainty will still support gold prices. If the news is false, gold may face renewed pressure. If the situation remains deadlocked, gold is likely to stay oscillating. In the medium to long term, the logic for gold remains unchanged: weaponization of the dollar and de-dollarization will continue to drive central banks to buy gold, providing a bottom support. Meanwhile, inflation pressures combined with economic slowdown could lower real interest rates, which is positive for gold. The market only focuses on nominal interest rates but ignores real interest rates; even if the nominal rate looks high, higher inflation can keep real rates negative, eroding bond purchasing power. To sum up, short-term gold will fluctuate more due to geopolitical news, but in the medium to long term, stagflation, declining real interest rates, central bank purchases, and de-dollarization remain core supports for gold’s strength.

Next Monday’s gold market analysis:
Technical analysis of gold: On the daily chart, two bullish candles formed, marking a strong rebound after reaching a new low in the phase, ending the previous unilateral weakness pattern. Currently, gold prices are above the 5-day moving average, with the slopes of the 5-day and 10-day moving averages slowing down, indicating diminishing bearish momentum. On indicators, MACD’s green bars have significantly shrunk, with the fast and slow lines turning upward from low levels, and KDJ and RSI showing bullish crossovers and divergence at low levels, signaling a clear short-term bullish correction. However, medium- and long-term moving averages still exert resistance, and the daily chart has not yet entered a unilateral rally, mainly showing oscillation correction.
On the 4-hour chart, the bottoming process is complete, with reversal confirmed; short-term moving averages have formed a bullish crossover and are rising steadily, supporting the price. MACD below zero has formed a golden cross with increasing volume, indicating sufficient short-term bullish momentum. However, after touching around $4,594, the price faced slight resistance, and the upward pace slowed, suggesting that next Monday will likely see continued oscillation and correction. On the 1-hour short-term chart, after the rebound, gold entered a consolidation phase, with short-term moving averages converging and entangling, indicating a balanced battle between bulls and bears. Key support is concentrated around $4,510–$4,500, serving as a critical defensive level; resistance is at $4,595–$4,600, and a breakout above could extend toward $4,650.

Overall, for next Monday, the short-term trading strategy recommended by Jin Shengfu is mainly to sell on rebounds and buy on dips, with a focus on resistance at 4465–4470 and support at 4480–4450. Position sizes and stop-losses should be carefully controlled, with strict stop-loss settings; avoid fighting against the trend. $XAUUSD