$CL Remain bullish. The Iran–U.S. agreement has once again fallen into a game of “strategic ambiguity”: Trump delays the final decision, Iran denies that a consensus was reached, and the U.S. Central Command warns that military action will take place in the Strait of Hormuz—already forcing 115 merchant ships to divert.

1. The U.S. and Iran still can’t fundamentally agree on issues such as enriched uranium and strait transit fees; Trump demands that Iran permanently give up nuclear weapons and that the strait be opened for free passage, while Iran dismisses it as a “mix of true and false.” The U.S. military immediately restarted a maritime blockade, with oil tankers still stuck outside the strait, causing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to plunge sharply.
2. Goldman Sachs overnight raised its Q3 oil price target to $120, warning that global inventories have fallen to dangerous levels and that any new conflict could push oil prices to $150. Data from the U.S. EIA shows crude oil inventories fell by nearly 10 million barrels last week, with strategic petroleum reserves at historical lows.
3. Meanwhile, the CFTC positioning report shows that net long positions in crude oil futures surged to a two-year high, as large funds are systematically betting on supply tightness.

With the U.S. military blockade still unresolved and inventories continuing to run down, institutional capital is flooding in relentlessly. Going long on crude oil—waiting for the moment the strait tightens to breaking. #阿贵Btc