Key June Timeline: Market Changes Under Triple Negative Factors

The capital markets in June are destined to be turbulent. A series of key events will follow one after another, each potentially acting as a "butterfly wing" that stirs the market. Planning ahead for these nodes is essential to seize opportunities amid volatility.

1. World Cup Opening: Capital Migration Behind the "Curse"

On June 11th, the World Cup officially kicks off. Veteran investors know there is a classic "World Cup curse" in the financial circle. This is not superstition but a real pattern of capital flow—during each World Cup, massive speculative funds worldwide withdraw from the stock and bond markets, diverting to sports betting and event consumption markets.

Once market liquidity is drained, without additional funds to support it, indices and individual stocks are unlikely to sustain a continuous upward trend, often falling into oscillation or downward correction. This is the first negative factor suppressing June’s market sentiment and liquidity.

2. SpaceX Going Public: The Trillion-Dollar Giant’s Siphoning Effect

On June 12th, SpaceX officially goes public. The listing of this trillion-dollar super giant will trigger a strong capital siphoning effect, rapidly absorbing liquidity from global markets (including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks), causing the market to enter a "bloodletting" phase.

Historical patterns show that during the listing cycle of top-tier companies, global capital markets inevitably experience intense volatility and sharp fluctuations. In front of this "giant," the previous negative factors are merely appetizers.

3. Federal Reserve Rate Decision: The "Crazy Combo" of Balance Sheet Reduction + Rate Cuts

On the early morning of June 18th, the Federal Reserve’s new rate decision will be announced, which is the most damaging negative news for investors concerned about assets like gold.

This year, Fed Chair Powell’s monetary policy approach is perplexing, with the core tools becoming a "rapid balance sheet reduction + simultaneous rate cuts" combo, akin to "braking while pressing the accelerator."

• Balance Sheet Reduction vs. Rate Hikes: Both aim to reduce market liquidity, but their essence differs. Balance sheet reduction decreases base money (e.g., the central bank’s injection of 1,000 yuan), while rate hikes reduce derivative money (the 1,710 yuan derived from the base money).

• Impact Comparison: Balance sheet reduction directly withdraws the core base money from the market, leveraging monetary multipliers to drain liquidity, with a much greater impact than rate hikes. If rate hikes are like "boiling frogs slowly," balance sheet reduction is "throwing the frog into boiling water."

• Historical Reference: The Fed’s rate hike cycle in 2022-2023 caused deep corrections in global stock markets, and this year’s balance sheet reduction will likely be even more intense. The policy implementation on June 18th will mark a formal turning point for global liquidity.

June’s market is full of challenges, and these key nodes deserve close attention from every investor. The current rebound has not ended; next week, I will lead everyone to test the top again! This summer’s decline and correction will be the main theme. Do not chase the bottom. We only went long for two days this Thursday and Friday. Next week, we will once again switch to a frantic short-selling mode.